Some remains have been returned to Japan. In nearly every case forensic evidence has shown that the bodies are not those of abductees. In many cases, they're not even the right gender. Death certificates bear incorrect birth dates and, suspiciously, their stamps are all from the same hospital, even though the victims allegedly died in different parts of the country.
Why would the North Koreans want to keep the abductees' whereabouts a secret?
"This is nothing more than hostage diplomacy," says Takuya Yokota. "North Korea is trying to draw out some kind of economic assistance or other kind of aid from our government using our family as hostage." Shigeo Iizuka agrees: "Pyongyang still considers the abductees one of their negotiation cards. They are trying to maximize their bargaining position in order to extract some other concession."
North Korea's national security could be at stake too. According to Yoichi Shimada, vice chairman of NARKN, "Some of the abductees were forced to teach North Korean spies the Japanese language and how to act Japanese. These abductees know the faces of these spies--many of whom could still be operating in Japan and South Korea." Adds Takuya, "If North Korea released our sister and others, they could expose Pyongyang's intelligence network."
So what can Japan and the United States do to bring about the return of all the families? "If we can financially squeeze North Korea," says Yoichi Shimada, "then we can make things worse and worse for Kim Jong Il and his henchmen. Hopefully this would lead to a coup or an internal collapse." Shimada does not mince words: "I have come to the conclusion that regime change is the only way to solve the abduction issue completely." Takuya is just as adamant: "The victims should be returned without conditions. That is the only position for North Korea to accept. We also think that not only Japan but also China, South Korea, and the United States should impose strong economic pressure."
Yet it is far from certain that the Japanese government will adopt such a strong policy--in part because of a wariness of how North Korea might react. And according to one staffer on the House Asia subcommittee, "There is not much else Japan can do frankly. They just have no strings to pull. For several years now, the Japanese have not provided humanitarian assistance to North Korea. And in indirect ways, Japan and the United States have made it more difficult for North Korean goods to enter Japan. That said, if the issue is to be resolved, it will be done in conjunction with the nuclear issue." Nevertheless, he says that solidarity can be increased as well as an awareness that "this is not just a Japanese issue, but rather a civilizational issue. It is appalling what this regime is doing." An official at the State Department agrees: "This fits into the whole range of egregious actions by the North Korean regime. We need to apply pressure on them on all fronts, from weapons of mass destruction to human rights."
"We simply hope that our visit to the United States will help remind Americans that North Korea is truly a terror regime," says Tetsuya Yokota. "It deserves global attention and will require global pressure to resolve this." Back in Japan, the sense of outrage grows by the day, and NARKN's Yoichi Shimada is leading the charge: "In Japan, we are demanding more action, even if unilaterally. Our slogan is very simple: Abduction is terrorism."
* Victorino Matus is an assistant managing editor at The Weekly Standard.
本プロジェクトにおける訪中・訪韓を通じて
2003年7月に訪問した中国では、北京で、姚文礼・中国社会科学院日本研究所日本対外関係研究室主任と北朝鮮問題に関して意見交換したほか、日本大使館の野本佳夫公使、岡野正敬参事官、下地富雄書記官、産経新聞の伊藤正中国総局長、福島香織記者らと現地情勢について意見交換した。
また、国連難民高等弁務官北京事務所のSenior Regional Legal Officer であるAnna Wang Heed氏とも同事務所において面談し、北朝鮮難民問題の現状について意見交換した。
伊藤正総局長によれば、中国上層部の中で、北のあの政権はつぶすしかないとの意見がかなり高まっているとのことであった。
現時点で中国がどこまで戦略的に腹を固めているかは微妙で、米大統領選挙の帰趨を見るまで時間稼ぎをすべきと考える勢力も少なからずあるように思われる。基本的に中国としては、今の北の体制が崩壊しても、親中的で非親米的な政権ができるなら問題ないであろう。現在の韓国政府などはまさに親中非親米政権であり、中国としては韓国による吸収統一も、状況次第では許容範囲という判断も当然出て来よう。
アメリカでは北の人権抑圧を糾弾する声が高まってきているが、その過程で、難民を北に強制送還している中国への非難の声は高まりはしても、収まることは考えられない。伊藤氏によれば、中国政府はそのことをかなり気にしだしているという。
また、北朝鮮から中国にもかなり麻薬が入っているといわれるが、これに対しても中国当局は取締りを強めているらしい。中国では麻薬を50グラム以上所持していると、売人と見なされて死刑になる。数グラムなら単なるユーザーで懲役ですむが、50グラムを超えたら売人と規定され、死刑が適用される。北の行為を大目に見る、甘い姿勢をとるということが、少なくともこうした側面ではなくなってきているようだ。
2004年3月10日から17日まで訪韓し、ソウルおよび光州において、趙甲済・『月刊朝鮮』編集長、政治学者・金正剛氏、徐栄振・講習日報主筆ら韓国人の専門家や『産経新聞』の黒田勝弘、久保田るり子両氏ら在韓日本人ジャーナリストらと意見交換した。黄長 氏、安明進氏、元化学研究所所長(実名は伏せる)ら脱北者数名とも面談した。ちょうど廬武鉉大統領の弾劾決議案が国会を通過した時期に当たり、活発な議論を行うことが出来た。
訪韓で得られた成果については一部を「提言」の中に盛り込んだが、詳細については、同行した西岡力委員の報告に譲りたいと思う。
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