The attack on the twin towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington D.C. on 11th September 2001 was a painful and bloody reminder of how destructive international terrorism can be. Over the last two years the suicide bombings and other acts of suicidal & other violence and terrorism have persisted, without ceasing not only in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank and Iraq but also in the Philippines, Indonesia and India serving a reminder to the international community, and the world at large, that a negotiated settlement of this problem needs to be found, preferably through the mechanisms for negotiations and discussion provided within the United Nations framework.

　

 As one examines the aspects of maintaining security of the sea-lanes it becomes clear that the problems involved here are complex indeed. Added to these is the prospect of the proliferation and spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction which may fall into the hands of non-state entities, or individuals. This can become quite a nightmare. The world realises that the spread of terrorism and the proliferation of WMDs and the means of their delivery (i.e. missiles of all calibers and ranges) are twin issues that cannot be manipulated without movement of huge amounts of illicit money, in hundreds of millions of dollars, and other currencies that may be involved. It usually is illicit money, illegally moved to dangerous destinations, clandestinely and surreptitiously, and often involved with narco-terrorism and narco-export, and other transactions related with narcotics. The Iraq war ostensibly came about as there were apprehensions regarding the presence of WMDs in Iraq. Had this been true the world would have seen a coalition of all manners of terrorists and terrorism, affecting not only the Middle-East and leading to the pursuit of chemical and biological weapons backed up also by the efforts of multi-national criminal groups and mafias.

　

 The situation in both ASEAN and the Northeast Asian regions has been caused, and thereafter rendered more complex by terrorism-related and WMD-related developments in the Middle-East region. A further complication for North-East Asia stems from the existence of two problems that were left over from the era of Cold War. These two concern the Korean peninsula and Taiwan. As regards North Korea it has always had the feeling that Chinese backing, support and assistance would be available to it on an ever-lasting basis. During the Cold War when the relations between China and Soviet Union (presently called Russian Federation) were difficult, North Korea could depend on both countries helping it. After the end of the Cold War China has been acquiring a significant amount of weapons-related technology from Russia. However, at the same time it should be clear to us that until the Russian Federation economy transforms itself and becomes a market-oriented one, without insistence on retaining the old style of Leninist-Marxist economic controls Russia will need to maintain friendly and collaborative relations with the industrialized and prosperous West. China has already succeeded in building a market-oriented economy in which even for the former Communists the prescription is that "it is glorious to be rich". China, however, continues to manage its polity broadly on the classical Maoist pattern. It, therefore, is considered a reliable friend even today by North Korea. China does from time to time advise North Korea to transform its economy through competition rather than through edicts and diktats of the party.

　

 For years evidence has existed to show that China collaborates with North Korea in the area of fabricating missiles of various ranges and capabilities. For the last several years they collaborated also to market these products abroad. They have devised and tested missiles of various ranges together. They have together diverted these WMD-related means of delivery for sale in the Middle East and South Asia. Missiles and rockets of different ranges and calibers and weight-load capabilities have been sold and supplied to countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan etc. Pakistan has been a special case because China and North Korea have found ways and methods of supplying Pakistan equipment, machinery and ancillaries as well as the technology to indigenously produce various types of missiles. Recently Pakistan also supplied the technology for enrichment of uranium to North Korea. Thus, in recent years and months this has become a most unusual case of three-way proliferation of technology and supplies for WMDs North Korea supplying missiles, and plant to construct missiles, to Pakistan through China; and in return Pakistan providing North Korea technology and equipment for uranium enrichment.

　

 It is significant that it was only recently that North Korea started claiming that that it possesses nuclear warheads, and would not hesitate to utilize them in pursuit of its national interests. The physical proximity of the two Koreas with one another makes a nuclear-armed North Korea, which is also short of food grains and other resources, extremely dangerous for all its neighbours. The danger is not only for South Korea but also perhaps for Japan and Taiwan. North Korea has demanded direct bilateral negotiations with the USA, and sought from the USA guarantees of non-attack on North Korea. Perhaps the USA has come to recognise the strength of a weak power, which could be irresponsible and, therefore, the USA has avoided seeking pro-active steps against the North Korean regime, and has been content to leave it to China to find a negotiated way out of this extremely dangerous situation. A multi-power negotiating group (China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Japan and USA) has been working but, until now, it has not been able to persuade North Korea to fulfill the assurances it had given when President Carter had negotiated the future of North Korea's nuclear capabilities. China has lately got some indication of its inability, in the short term, to move North Korea decisively in the direction of peace.

　

 China's own military capability especially in the air and naval fields has grown enormously through its acquisition of certain latest technologies and weapons systems. In the ASEAN region as also in South Asia there are countries like Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia where Islamic clergy, over the years, have acquired considerable influence over the masses but have also been impacted by Saudi Arabian and Pakistani fervour favouring political and international Islam. As a result several programmes of training and networking with ideologues connected with Al-Qaeda and Taliban along with the backing of Jamait-e-Islami parties in several countries, seem to have moved the situation towards certain dangerous potentialities and possibilities.

　

 The economic expansion of China has translated into enormous accretion of military power for that country through acquisition of the latest weapons systems and precision weaponry. In the waters of the South China Sea, which surround islands and atolls of that Sea, e.g. Paracels, Spratleys, Mischief Reef etc. have apparently some promise of oil and natural gas, the ownership of which China seems to covet. It was only in the San Francisco Peace Conference of 1951 that Japan renounced its territorial right to these islands. However, the sovereignty of these islands had not been determined at that time. Vietnam, Taiwan along with China claimed territorial rights over the entire island group. However Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei claimed territorial rights over some of these islands. For the present the status quo is being maintained, but all are aware of the brooding force that China represents.

　

 All the major naval powers of the ASEAN region have been keeping track of how the Chinese fleet has maintained some activity or the other in the waters around Japan. General survey activities, and intelligence collection has continued unabated by the Chinese fleet. India and Japan need to keep their own security and maritime interests under close review. However, they can profitably build bilateral & mutual cooperation in this context. We can also see how the discussions in the ARF could be utilized, so that we build closely calibrated and well-understood preventive diplomacy about which others do not come to have unnecessary apprehensions & suspicions. Hopefully this perception could ultimately help build regional consensus in the context of the utilization of the Ocean. As discussed above, of course security of our nations and their defence is important. This security can be ensured only if the transportation of energy resources for our developmental and economic activities can be ensured. We have also to keep under review the huge population China has to feed, and that nation's diminishing ability to expand their food productivity. China is likely, therefore, to move steadily towards more intensive fishing in its own waters and elsewhere, some even abutting our EEZs. Countries like Japan and India together in this context, need to keep watch over the environmental effects of expansion of naval activities and intensive fishing etc.

　

 In the last few years certain major powers have been cautious regarding the functioning of the United Nations, and international law as it is evolving. We have perhaps not been as mindful as we should be of the historical significance of the U.N. Convention of the Law of the Sea. We had invested a lot of negotiating energy & resources on negotiating in the U.N. framework the Law of the Sea over a period of eight or nine years. That work needs to be utilized and not forgotten. Ultimately we are bound to recognize that humanitarian aspects of the legal system will need to follow the principles and purposes of the U.N. Charter. National sovereignty is not a concept, which we can cast away unthinkingly. China has neither been shy nor slow in suggesting that it considers itself entitled to maintain a steady watch over these waters and islands that whenever necessary it would not hesitate to use appropriate means of coercing local & weaker powers. We have already mentioned the situation of piracy in South China Sea as also the complicating and dangerous factors of drug trafficking, slave trade and illegal movements of funds. This is a complex situation, which could very quickly become serious & difficult.

　

 The Indian Ocean covers an area of 74 million sq. kms, which translates into 20% of the total ocean naval area of the earth. The Indian Ocean touches the shores of three continents, Asia, Africa and Australia. At its Southern most extremity it reaches up to Antarctica. The routes for transportation and communication through the Indian Ocean are shorter and more economical into the Pacific, indeed also into the Atlantic. The Indian Ocean and its littoral states are rich in natural resources. More than half of the earth's known oil reserves are in the Indian Ocean region. The littoral states are also abundant producers of gold, uranium, silver, diamonds and other gems. At one time the possibility of retrieving polymetallic nodules from the Seabed of the Indian Ocean used to be considered an important factor as these nodules contain copper, cobalt, nickel, and manganese etc. Lately the interest in retrieval of metals whether from land or from sea has diminished, as certain synthetic fibres and plastics have started getting used in a versatile manner. The peninsula of India divides the northern periphery of Indian Ocean into Bay of Bengal on the one hand and the Arabian Sea on the other side. For India this is the ocean of the utmost importance, as 97% of India's exports have to be sea borne. 90% of India's demand for oil and natural gas too is met from the sea, the bulk of it carried aboard tankers and some extracted from offshore waters. It is, therefore, that India's interest in the security and prosperity of the Indian Ocean and its littoral states has always been a major factor in its geo-political perceptions.

　

 It is necessary to emphasise that Asian democracies have certain common interests even in the context of their ocean-related functioning. On the other hand we do find that there is a certain unity of purpose and ambitious calculations about the future amongst the dictatorships. It is thus that China, North Korea, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia etc. have come so quickly to recognize their common arenas for power projection.

　

 Ever since 1992 Chinese interest in the Indian Ocean region has both expanded and deepened. In 1998 the People's Liberation Army of China announced the expansion of their naval capabilities by constructing three large bases for their own navy. Thereafter China has taken enormous interest in building up naval facilities, and naval points of strength by strengthening the naval capabilities of two countries in this region, Myanmar (Burma) and Pakistan. Chinese assistance has been provided to Myanmar to expand its naval infrastructure, also to modernize it. In this context the Chinese have constructed a new naval base at Hanggyi island at the mouth of River Irrawady. They have also developed the facilities at Sittwe on the Bangladesh border; and installed radar facilities in the Coco Islands just 30 nautical miles away from the Andaman islands. These are all significant and consciously aggressive moves by China. A recent US military-naval review observed that China may already have deployed its nuclear submarine in the Indian Ocean. An American scholar has written that China considers itself both a land and a sea power, and India its chief competitor for the leadership of Asia. It considers itself Pakistan's most powerful ally & perhaps protector. It is aware that the Russian threat to China no longer exists and, therefore, China feels free to re-think its strategic imperatives. Its naval focus now will be towards the east and south i.e. towards the Indian sub-continent, while earlier Japan appeared to have been their favourite military target due to its close alliance with the USA & its growth & pre-eminence as an economic force China no longer feels intimidated by Japan's economic prowess. On balance China will consider India its main naval target. China has encouraged and helped Pakistan in increasing its naval capabilities considerably. They have helped Pakistan develop the Jinnah Naval Port at Oramara in the Arabian Sea, and since August 2001 China has been involved in developing a port of strategic importance at Gwadar. China's economic and technical assistance for these developments is likely to become a grant, i.e. not normal aid which has to be repaid. China's increase of its activities in South Asia includes its construction of a highway from Iran to Karachi along the coastline of Arabian Sea. It is believed that the Gwadar port and the building of the Iran-Karachi highway are two moves meant to demonstrate to both India and the USA how Pakistan is forging ahead, and that it can operate autonomously vis-à-vis these two countries.

　

 China's latest move to send successfully a space flight, carrying an Astronaut, too was meant to signal to the world that China has emerged militarily & technologically & henceforth can find the resources for achieving its objectives and establishing broader and larger capabilities in the military field as also in the field of high technology.

　

 The idea is to convey through a few subtly crafted symbols a certain menace which can either be dour and grim or accompanied by a sarcastic grin or a cynical smile.

　

・・・印亜・西太平洋一体地域における海洋安全保障・・・

　

1 海洋の自由

（1）「海洋の自由」の意義

ア 歴史的意義と国連海洋法条約

　海洋は、有史以前から人類の自由な活動に任されてきた。そして、欧州の近代国家によって、公海の国際的な価値を基礎とした「公海の自由」が、国際法上の原則として確立され、1958年には、「公海条約」が明文化されるに至った。この原則は、1982年に採択、1994年に発効した国連海洋法条約にも、基本的に引き継がれている。

　「公海の自由」を敷衍した、海洋における自由な活動の権利、いわゆる「海洋の自由」は、国連海洋法条約などの国際法に定められた他の沿岸国の主権や管轄権を阻害しない範囲で、一定の国際的ルールに則り、沿岸国に最大限に海洋を自由に利用する権利であり、大別すれば、SLOC（Sea lines of communications）を使用する「海上航行の自由」と海洋の諸資源を活用する「海上諸活動の自由」とに分けることが出来る。

　

イ 「相互発展か対立か」の鍵を握る海洋の自由

　・・・国際的な経済面での相互依存の深化に必須の「海上航行の自由」・・・

　冷戦後、国際社会は、イデオロギー対立の問題から解放され、国家間の交流に関しての敷居が一挙に低くなると同時に、輸送インフラストラクチュアや情報分野での科学技術が急速に発達、普及したことにより、国際経済における物資や情報の流通が円滑となった。また、旧社会主義諸国の市場経済化と発展途上国における急激な経済成長により、多様な国家間の経済協力の実が上がり、グローバルな経済的相互依存関係が一層深化するようになってきた。この関係を順調に維持し発展させるための物資輸送は益々重要性を増し、特に経済的で大量の物資輸送に適する海上交通は、必須不可欠の存在となっており「海上航行の自由」は以前にも増して重要な意義を持つようになってきた。

　他方、湾岸戦争や今回のイラク戦争、1996年の中国の弾道ミサイル発射による台湾海峡危機などによって実証された通り、何らかの理由によりSLOCに危険な状況が生起し、「海上航行の自由」が阻害されるようになれば、経済面のみならず、地域や特定国家の安全保障にとって大きな悪影響を与えることとなる。

　このため、連接したSLOC一帯の沿岸国間で、「海上航行の自由」を確保するための、何らかの連帯、協調活動の必要性が増加しているのである。

　・・・海洋資源の獲得を巡る対立の場となりつつある「海上諸活動の自由」・・・

　国連海洋法条約は、内水、領海、接続水域、国際海峡、群島水域、排他的経済水域（EEZ）、大陸棚、公海などを規定し、沿岸国に、内水、領海、接続水域での主権とEEZや大陸棚での天然資源などに対する主権的権利と環境保護などに対する管轄権を与えている。沿岸国によるEEZ等の設定により、地球上のほぼ半分の海域には何れかの国の管轄権が及ぶこととなった。

　一方、国連海洋法条約の基本精神に立脚したEEZの本来的意義からすれば、沿岸国の主権的権利は、海洋資源を管理するための権利、つまり資源管理義務を履行する上での権限であって、資源の独占的利用を許されるといった権利ではないのであるが、現実には、海洋権益や歴史的領土問題などが絡み、EEZを巡る諸国間の確定作業が全て円満に解決しているわけではない。

　特に、将来的な陸上資源の枯渇傾向等を見越しての、漁業や海底資源を始めとする豊富な海洋資源への関心の高まりは、発展途上国のナショナリズムの高揚につながり、先進国の既得権益を侵食するエネルギーとなって各国間の海洋資源獲得を巡る対立を激化させる要因となっている。漁業資源の保護、育成のための国際的協議や国連海洋法条約の発効に伴う深海底資源の帰属に関わる国家間協議での激しい主張の対立はその証左と言える。このことは、確立された一定の国際、地域ルールの下での各国の「海上諸活動の自由」の重要性を高めているとも言えよう。

　

ウ 緊要性のある「海洋の自由」に関するコンセンサス作り

　このように見れば、「海上航行の自由」や「海上諸活動の自由」を保証する「海洋の自由」の重要性は、21世紀においても、安全保障や経済活動の面で、その重要性が増しこそすれ減ることは無い。またその一方で、「海洋の自由」が阻害される各種の要因が世界や地域の至る所で顕在化しつつあるのも事実である。関係国のコンセンサスの下、「海洋の自由」が広く享受されるべきことの重要性は理解されながらも、実行は容易ではない。SLOCが海洋を紐帯として、地域から地域への連接性という固有の特徴を持っているが故に、出来るだけ広範な地域の受益国が、「海洋の自由」に共通の利益を見出し、協調してことに当たるコンセンサス作りが急務となっている。

　

（2）印亜・西太平洋一体地域における「海洋の自由」の意義

ア 一体地域として死活的重要性を持つようになった「海洋の自由」

　言うまでも無く東アジア・西太平洋地域経済が海洋に依存する度合いは、世界の他の地域に比較して遥かに高く、地域における海洋の戦略的価値は極めて大きい。近年の東アジア・西太平洋地域（東南アジア、北東アジア、オセアニア）のダイナミックな経済成長は、地域の経済的コミュニケーションの媒体であると同時に、地域沿岸国の経済発展を保障し得る有望な海洋資源を提供する海洋の存在無しには語れず、地域全体の発展にとって「海洋の自由」は死活的に重要であると認識されている。

　一方、インド洋地域については、東アジア・西太平洋地域と連接していながらも、従来同地域の諸国からは、比較的関心低く見られ勝ちであった。しかし近年、広大なインド洋地域の中でも、特に欧州方面や中東地域と東アジア・西太平洋地域の連接帯となっている北インド洋地域（ここではインド、パキスタン、スリランカ、バングラディシュの4カ国）について言えば、経済的側面、安全保障的側面の何れからも、その重要性が認識されるようになった。

　経済的側面で考えた場合、北インド洋地域は、東アジア・西太平洋地域と比べそのダイナミズムは比較にならないほど低調であると認識されがちであるが、例えば、インドの経済成長率は、ここ数年の間に平均5.7%、北インド洋地域諸国全体でも5%台を記録するなど堅調であり、将来予測を更に上向きに見る向きもあるほどである。特に、近年の両地域間の貿易額増加率（過去3年間で1.5倍の増加）が示すように、東アジア・西太平洋地域と北インド洋地域の相互依存関係が急速に増加していることは注目しなければならない。

　この際、北インド洋地域と東アジア・西太平洋地域間の陸路での連接手段は今なお粗悪であり、必然的に「海上航行の自由」への依存度が高くならざるを得ないこと、また両地域とも海底資源の利用や漁業など「海上諸活動の自由」が地域の将来発展にとっての鍵となっていることを認識する必要がある。こういった点からして、仮に「海洋の自由」が奪われる状況が生起した場合、両地域の経済及び安全保障面への悪影響が極めて甚大となるであろうことは自明のとおりである。

　即ち、経済、安全保障の両側面から、今後は「海洋の自由」の確保に関し、東アジア・西太平洋地域諸国と北インド洋地域諸国間を、両地域間の連帯、協調をベースとした、「印亜・西太平洋」（Indi-Asian & West-Pacific）という一体地域として把握していく必要が出てきたと認識すべきである。

　

イ 一体地域での海洋を媒介とする通商による発展の保証・・・海上航行の自由

　冷戦後、経済を軸とした多国間の枠組みは加速的に進んだ。その中で最大のものは、アジア・太平洋経済協力閣僚会議（APEC）である。APECは、世界の人口約55億の39%が参加し、加盟国の合計のGDPが世界のGDPの48%を占める世界最大の経済的な地域統合の枠組みとなった。このような動きは、経済的パートナーを地域内に求めることで、ボーダーレス経済時代に、他地域との競争に勝って一層の経済発展の可能性を追求する意味を有していると思われる。

　一方、北インド洋地域は、世界の人口の22%（インドだけで17%）を占め、加盟国の合計のGDPが世界のGDPの2%を占めている。加えて、1990年代末期からは、東アジア・西太平洋地域諸国との関係も増加しており、今後も増加が見こまれている。

　地政学的見地から言っても、印亜・西太平洋一体地域における海洋は、地域内諸国を結ぶ事実上唯一、最大の交通路であることから、他の地域に比べての「海上航行の自由」の重要性は決定的である。

　翻って我が国経済は、正に海洋を媒体として印亜・西太平洋一体地域の牽引車の役割を果たしてきており、域内における国際分業の重要な一極としての役割を担ってきた。このことから、日本が地域内の海洋を媒介とする通商を安定的に確保するために貢献する責任が求められている。

　

ウ 一体地域での有望な資源の供給源・・・海上諸活動の自由

　グローバルイシューとなっている人口問題は印亜・西太平洋一体地域においても極めて深刻である。その最大のものは中国であり、将来的に深刻な食糧問題を惹起させる可能性が高い。その証拠に既に、中国の食料自給率は低下傾向を見せており、その中で漁業資源への依存度が高まっている。

　しかし、漁業資源は無尽蔵なものではなく、各国は、多国間条約及び2国間条約において資源の採取、禁止及び規制の内容を取極めているが、漁業資源への依存度の増加に従って、今後は漁業水域を巡る争いや違反行為の多発が予想される所である。

　一方、南シナ海及び東シナ海の島嶼周辺やベンガル湾や東アラビア海のインド沿岸部などは、有望な海底資源が期待されている海域であり、印亜・西太平洋一体地域全体の経済発展に潜在的影響力を持っている。石油など、既にその一部は開発されている所であるが、近年、有望な鉱床や天然ガスの存在が続々と報告されるなど、ますます沿岸国の熱い期待が高まっている。反面、南シナ海や東シナ海などでの中国の海洋への強引な進出などのように、資源を巡る熾烈な争奪戦が、島嶼の領有問題への発展など、安全保障上の重大な懸念を惹起していることも事実である。

　

エ 一体地域における安全保障・・・「海洋の自由」確保のための連帯的取組み

　本稿にいう一体地域は、安全保障上の観点からすると、9.11テロの直後に出された米国の01QDRにいう「ベンガル湾から北東アジアまでの不安定の弧」にほぼ一致する。

　前述のように、一体地域の安定と将来発展を保障するために、通商や資源確保といった面での地域全体としての「海洋の自由」の確保が重要であるが、近年はこれに加え、一体地域における安全保障上の懸念材料となっている無法国家や国際テロなど非国家主体への大量破壊兵器、弾道ミサィルの拡散といった点について、東アジア・西太平洋地域と北インド洋地域との関連性にも注目する必要がある。

　特に、9.11テロに関連するアフガンでの戦闘、アラビア海でのアル・カーイダなどの海上阻止作戦にも表されるように、安全保障面で言えば、両地域の関連度は極めて密接の度合いを増してきており、益々一体地域全体としての連帯的な取組みが必要となってきている。現実にも02年4月から9月に掛けては、マラッカ海峡を通峡する米海軍艦船に対する米印海軍による対テロ共同パトロールが行われた。

　また、1990年代後半から急増してきたマラッカ海峡などでの海賊や海上武装強盗の横行に対する一体地域全体での対策も急務となっている。この点について言えば、日本としては、99年にインドネシア東岸で海賊に襲撃されたAlondora Rainbow号を、インド洋上において、インド海軍と沿岸警備隊の連携により見事に捕捉したことは、記憶に新しい所である。