Former Foreign Secretary of India

　

 When Queen Victoria of England, styling herself also as Empress of India, died in January 1901, Britain was primus inter pares amongst the major powers of the world. The following eight Emperors or their Personal and Special Representatives were proud to be her pallbearers. Victoria's successor, Edward VII of England as the Emperor of India; Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany; and the Emperors of Austria, Russia, China, Japan, Ethiopia & Iran. In less than a hundred years, UK, although still a permanent member of Security Council is much diminished, its sovereign no longer an Emperor; and out of all the other Emperors only one survives, The Emperor Akihito of Japan, with his Imperial identity in tact, ruling the second largest Economy on the globe.

　

 This little story shows how history continues its constant & inexorable march. During each decade, each century things change, situations evolve in a strange way. Society, politics, economics & technology keep altering & evolving, ever changing the equations between & amongst nations & countries inevitably changing the visage of that which, we have learnt to call the International Situation.

　

 The historian & the strategist view this phenomenon from two different angles. Unlike during the last centuries, today the main catalyst for change is the innovative people & their economic success & technological ability, not just the size & strength of the military their nation can project. Military Power provides a society, a nation or a country the hard power to coerce. Political scientists do, by now, recognize that a country's policies & principles, its political ideals and culture, its philosophy & literature either make it attractive & admirable, or ugly & unworthy. When these are found attractive it acquires the capacity to influence and persuade, rather than needing to coerce, through demonstrating the power of its military force. In the last two centuries the world has come to recognize that military power is hardly ever adequate to influence, unless it is backed by economic clout either to help or to inflict long-term damage. In the last century & a half as science & technology have impacted the economic, agricultural & industrial productivity of nations, nations have started acknowledging that innovations in technology augment economic strength and without the latter military power is not all that effective or impressive. So much for hard power in this day & age.

　

 In South-East Asian & South China waters, piracy has become a serious problem. The International Maritime Bureau, since its establishment in Kuala Lumpur, has brought to light various facets of this menace. A large number of cases between South China, and the Sri Lankan coast have gone unreported. Shipping interests in Japan are by now anxious enough to have suggested the setting up of a UN multi-national force (not merely under the IMO) at strategic points like the Malacca Strait. The affected industrialized & major trading nations irrespective of wherever they may be located, need to get together, and set a combined Regional Force expeditiously & get the UN, in due course, to concur in this. Armed attacks by pirates have become too serious & too numerous by now to be ignored by the Maritime nations.

　

 The International Maritime Board has reported several instances of vessels & cargoes of copper, sugar and other such commodities of significant value, being captured. Some of these have thereafter disappeared along the coastal region of South China Sea. Such incidents cannot happen except through corruption inland, especially in the local law enforcement agencies. There are whispers that local army elements in South China have been helping hide pirated ships and stolen cargoes. Occasionally Chinese authorities have refused to prosecute pirates even when they are apprehended in their own ports. The 16 proven pirates who hijacked the vessel "Patrol Ranger" were arrested and later released without prosecution being initiated by Chinese authorities. The IMB called this "a disgrace for a maritime nation", as they felt that China was not living up to its commitment & obligation to prosecute pirates.

　

 These instances have encouraged large numbers of elite marines of various western nations leaving their services, and forming mercenary Task Forces to combat piracy. A Dutch company, with attractive financial support from certain European banks, was formed for this purpose. Certain former British marines too chose to join such groups involved in anti-piracy work. Chinese and LTTE-trained personnel, functioning in a quasi-official manner, have caused anxiety to several nations. Naoyoshi Ishikawa, a senior former Japanese shipping line official has argued that Japan should protect her interests in the sea-lanes by participating in regional patrols under the UN banner. Recently the Japanese Self-Defence Forces too felt pressed enough to dispatch aeroplanes and helicopters in search of some of their missing vessels.

　

 Whenever these matters are discussed in U.N. forums, Chinese official agencies appear uncomfortable. We need to remember, however, that Article 100 of the U.N. Convention of the Laws of the Seas does not require states to suppress piracy but merely to cooperate "as fully as possible", and only on the high seas, or in places beyond national jurisdiction. Thus at present there is no obligation or duty to cooperate in suppressing piracy in the territorial seas, which is where piracy has been occurring, and is most likely to occur. One sees that in recent months the Chinese officialdom & law enforcing agencies have taken a serious view of piracy by their nationals & started handing out harsh & drastic punishment, even going to the length of shooting such criminals after summary trials.

　

 The late eighties, and early nineties saw the end of the Soviet Union, until then the second Super Power in our global politico-military system. Its disintegration led to the birth of a somewhat diminished new Russian Federation. The end of the Soviet Union specifically & concretely meant that the five Central Asian Soviets, Islamic by tradition, background and faith, were de-linked from the Socialist and political Slav political system with which they had grown during the last century or more. These Republics were: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan. Certain other ex-Soviet states abutting on the Caspian Sea (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia) too got separated from the old Soviet Union. Chechnya had no choice but to remain within the Russian Federation. However, it displayed a strong desire to secede from the Union and demonstrated it by commencing a civil war type operation with the help of Al-Qaeda, Taliban & Pakistan. Similarly the three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and three Europe-located states: Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova also abandoned the sinking ship of the fast diminishing Soviet Union. Moscow was surprised that despite the ethnic and linguistic propinquity with Russia, the last mentioned three chose to leave the Federation. This was virtual disintegration of a powerful and large composite state which for more than half a century enjoyed the status of the world's Second Super Power. Some day historians, economists & sociologists will write doctoral theses to determine why this powerful nation allowed itself to be partially erased from the world map. These developments have changed the geo-political map of the world beyond recognition.

　

 The Berlin Wall fell. The capitalist and communist halves of Germany re-united. The Socialist world's defence shield in Europe, the WARSAW Pact disappeared without a trace, and without demanding that in the interest of maintaining parity, NATO too should be erased from the political-military scenario of the Atlantic region. After all NATO, ever since it got established, was seen as an instrument to provide a united, across-the-Atlantic defence mechanism meant to bring into play USA's economic, financial, military and technological resources to defend Europe's land mass. NATO could, when necessary, be permitted to expand its field of operation into the Asian continental space across the Urals. Originally this perhaps was a method of terrifying certain lily-hearted and feeble Asian states which would also affect the thinking of the defeatists amongst the Russian strategists. Indeed, the NATO was able gradually to establish its sway in the Balkans and managed the situation arising out of the disintegration of Yugoslavia, somewhat (though not entirely) without reference to the processes of the United Nations. And now several East European countries, formerly of the Socialist world aligned to the Soviets are cheerfully joining the NATO. A historic change indeed.

　

 These developments have had huge & major consequences and repercussions. Some of these are still rolling in. One consequence has been a neater parceling out of Asia into several regional groups: West Asia; Central Asia; South Asia; South-East Asia; and North-East Asia. All these are now broadly recognized as separate sub-regions of the vast Asian land space, excluding that which is part of the Russian Federation. Arab Islamic world was earlier being seen by geographers and cartographers principally as the WANA (West Asia-North Africa) region comprising the Arab lands of the Middle-East including Iran, jointly with the North African Islamic countries. The world watched an ever-increasing geo-political confusion, which was caused by the Arabs themselves, with powerful backing from the Islamic clergy. There was confusion all round in so far as sporadic activism in the region alternated with a show of feebleness & defeatism. The Arab youth and the disadvantaged of these countries started rising so as to react violently against their rulers, Kings, Emirs & Sheikhs, seeking succour & fulfilment in their Islamic faith, and permitting their theologians and the clergy comprising rigid and conservative mullahs, who were anxious to reject modern life, modern means of artistic fulfilment and entertainment and indeed what the world at large sees as modern urban culture of the industrial & post-industrial era. At one level this phenomenon was able to produce a complex-ridden terrorist violence of a peculiarly Wahabi-Sunni character. This too produced a new segment of an ever-increasing geo-political confusion, concerned with & affecting both the Arabs and Islam.

　

 When we see how, ever since the 1920s this region has faced the perennial contradictions & dilemmas of Palestine-Israeli disagreements & disputes, and how against the Judaic Israelis, the Palestinians have been labelled as Islamic even though a considerable proportion of them are Christians. Palestine-Israel dispute has remained impervious to settlement. The geographical region of Biblical Palestine in which were born all three Semitic religions Jewish, Christian & Islamic, has itself become the arena for unending and irrational, cruel violence. By and large, the non-Islamic world outside of Palestine has remained firm in its commitment to science, technology, modern economics and the need to use rational judgment to settle the differences & problems between Israel and Palestine. This settlement whenever it is eventually achieved will need to ensure that water resources become available to both sides. And in this Iraq has a major role, because that is the land of plentiful water. Insofar as the Arabs are concerned their most major resource - oil - which the Arabs require only as wealth, but is seen by the rest of the world an essential resource for maintaining industrial and urban life, in all the areas & lands which require it but cannot produce it. There are Arab nations which are fired with Islamic fervour; and then there are those which are attracted to the idea of modernising themselves, and in the process structuring a non-feudal, non-oligarchic culture with democratic governance, and normal freedom essential for today's civilized existence.

　

 At one level Nine-Eleven was caused by the frustrations in Arab societies and certain Islamic (non-Arab) nations entertaining a variety of real complaints as also certain petty peeves. Ever since Nine-Eleven people around the world, irrespective of faith, ethnicity or language, remain apprehensive about the prospects of peace in this region. The region itself is of extreme importance to humanity because this is the area with enormous supplies of oil and natural gas, and even more enormous reserves. The bulk of their production is exported from the West Asian region to Japan, China, India, Europe and the USA. Between the first Gulf war and the current & continuing war in Iraq, the USA has quietly established its undisputed control and hold over the Persian Gulf, which some call the Arab Gulf. The safety and security of innocent passage guaranteed under International Law and the U.N. Convention of the Law of the Sea has constantly to be watched carefully, so that nothing is done to affect its security.

　

 The freedom of maritime navigation, and the freedom to use sea-lanes of communication, involves cooperative ability of all states to get their energy supplies on the usual terms of oil commerce, passing peacefully through not only the Indian Ocean but also its various choke points. This need and requirement for maritime freedom must persuade all of us to ensure that the economics of oil supplies is combined with the security of the sea-lanes through the Indian Ocean. We need to ensure that such supplies can continue now, & in foreseeable future, in reasonable security. The USA and India have all along hoped that the third major democracy in the region with a reliable and respectable naval force i.e. Japan will also extend its cooperation to this venture despite its constitutional and traditional constraints. It is our hope that we will all exercise caution and speed in ensuring that no loophole or space remains for mischief in this area of functioning. We need to ensure that no bilateral considerations of helping certain nations or hurting certain others will result in any major naval power feeling encouraged to make a miscalculation.

　

 The need to maintain the security of these sea-lanes of communication has become a more complex matter of security due to certain recent developments of global significance. For the last fourteen years, India has been suffering the ravages of state promoted international terrorism and this has disturbed India's internal balances & peace & we apprehend further potential of it damaging us. That is why India had presented several years ago, in the United Nations a draft International Convention to Check the Menace of Terrorism. Earlier this draft had failed to attract focussed attention and speedy action. We hope now that the international community has woken up to the seriousness of the situation created by terrorism, that this matter shall soon be resolved & concluded.