参考資料 (曽我論文要旨)
Analysis of the Japanese-Korean Tie-up Option in Petroleum Industry
for the Better Energy Security Cooperation in Asia
Masayoshi SOGA
Recently there is an important trial to increase the economical potential especially in North America and EU with international cooperation. In Far Eastern area there are some opinions that it is essential for Far Eastern economy to establish the first economic free zone including China, Korea and Japan, too.
So in this paper the economical evaluation is tried for the efficiency that will be enhanced by Japanese-Korean Tie-up Option on the petroleum industry as a firststep. The petroleum refinery and transportation system model is developed with linear programming method. Using this model, it is discovered that some Japanese-Korean Tie-up Option will be able to get higher efficiency economically equivalent for 300〜400 million US$ a year compared with non-Tie-up condition.
For this improved condition, the quantity of petroleum transportation will have to be increased to 30〜38 million KL between Japanese and Korean, too. This amount is 2.7〜3.5 times as large as the amount in 1997. So it should be understood very well that the good availability of tankers for this transportation in this area would be necessary for the efficient economic condition in future.
In this paper there is an analysis for How to get higher efficiency in "only Japanese-Korean Petroleum Industry". On the other side, some Japanese-Korean Tie-up Option has a potential that Asian crude market will be able to realize fairer international pricing. Recently the Asian oil market's dependence on the Middle East rose considerably. Entering the 1990s, Asia-bound oil cargoes from the Middle East have been felt more expensive then those shipped to Europe and the U.S. Particularly in from 1997 to 1998, the differentials widened to around 3 US$/barrel(20% of a crude price level). By this phenomenon Asian crude-importing countries were obliged to pay excess money as much as Japan had to pay to U.S. military in Iraqi Oil Crisis. Some Japanese-Korean Tie-up Option has a potential that this phenomenon would be escaped in Asian crude market. I think we had better try again to study the Japanese-Korean Tie-up Option for the Better Energy Security Cooperation in Asia.
