In resisting Chinese assertions of hegemony made on the basis of centrality and proximity, the peninsular and maritime states of ASEAN ought to be better placed than the mainland states. Malaysia has conflicting territorial claims with China in the South China Sea, and its military is suspicious of China. Malaysia hedges by allowing limited access by the US Navy to its ports. It also maintains external security links, including with Australia via the Five Power Defense Arrangements. In 1996, not long after China 'ratified' UNCLOS, Malaysia helped with the preliminaries when Indonesia mounted unprecedently large scale exercises, pointedly in defense of the Natunas.
But as often happens, visceral instinct impinges on strategy.10 Dr. Mahathir's antagonisms to the West represent a strategic asset for Beijing, which now may seek an arms supply relationship as a means of influence in Kuala Lumpur.1 Saying that China has never attacked anyone, Dr. Mahathir sees no need for a continuing US military presence in Southeast Asia. He promoted the East Asia Economic Caucus, which excluded the United States, Canada and Australia. By pitting Asia's interests against those of the West, that would have strengthened Beijing's hand. The remnants of Malaysia's pro-Chinese communist party have thrown in the towel, so Dr. Mahathir seems confident that China will not work to undermine Malay political dominance in Malaysia. He has portrayed the region's economic crisis as a consequence of a Jewish conspiracy, and urges Asia to resist American 'triumphalism'.
The wealthy city state of Singapore is well armed, and bases its security policy on a search for double and triple insurance, as well it might. Singapore is one of the few regional countries willing to publicly warn China on the consequences of using force, and works actively to keep friendly outside powers strategically engaged in Southeast Asia. It has strong security links with Australia, where it trains much of its air force. Apart from Australia, Singapore is the only regional country capable of participating in the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). At Changi Naval Base, Singapore is building a berth specifically to accommodate US aircraft carriers, much to the chagrin of Malaysia, which sees Singapore's connections with the United States as akin to Israel's links with America.
But Singapore, whose population is nearly 80% ethnic Chinese, has no conflicting territorial claims with China. A victim of past Japanese aggression, Singapore remains vulnerable to China's assertions that Japanese militarism is reviving. If ethnic and religious turmoil were to engulf archipelagic Southeast Asia, Singapore might even in some circumstances be forced to look to a rising China for protection.
