No one in the region shouts this from the rooftop. But all know it, thus giving China great potential leverage.
Singapore's relationship with both Malaysia and Indonesia is the worst for twenty years. President Habibie recently ominously called Singapore a 'red dot in a green sea'. As a result of the scapegoating of the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, which included mass rape and looting, many fled to Singapore, taking their money with them. They won't go back until order is restored. But until they do, the Indonesian economy will not recover. The prospect of a more Islamic government in Indonesia is also deeply troubling to Singapore. Archipelagic Southeast Asia is a long way from the old days of 'four eyes' meetings between former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew and President Suharto, which did much to underpin regional stability.
ASEAN and the Taiwan issue： "See no evil"
China also gains great leverage over the ASEANs because they profess to see no linkage between their own security and Taiwan's continued ability to resist enforced reintegration with the PRC. One of the ASEAN interests in Taiwan is sheer proximity; Taiwan is separated from the Philippines by the narrow Bashi channel.
The ASEAN response to the Taiwan straits incident was far more muted than it would have been twenty years earlier. 12 Indeed, although Singapore at the time made low- key remonstrances against the use of force, Lee Kuan Yew (now a senior minister) has opposed American efforts to help Taiwan defend itself―as if there no connection existed between Taiwan's right to resist enforced reintegration with China and the wider regional balance. For the first time, Vietnam recently called for both China and Taiwan to "show restraint", signaling that China has Vietnam well under the thumb.13 Thailand, now a security ward of China, openly sided with Beijing in the Taiwan straits crisis of 1995-6.
Yet were ASEAN to acquiesce in the precedent set if China reintegrated Taiwan by force or even threat, that would be highly dangerous to its own security in the longer term. No-one expects the ASEANs to stand up and shout at China over the Taiwan issue. But they play into China's hands because they seem to accept Beijing's claims that American policy towards Taiwan is driven by the urge to keep China weak and divided. Neither do the ASEANs seem to appreciate that Taiwan now has greater purchase on American interests because it is the first democracy in the long history of the Chinese people. To the contrary, democracy on Taiwan is an affront to Singapore, which seeks the advantages of the market while retaining Leninist party control.
