Those in the West who see the Spratlys issue as a legal issue also play into the hands of the Chinese. The Spratlys are a strategic issue with a legal face. The terms under which China "ratified" the UN Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) in May 1996 were testimony to China's astonishing hubris. China made archipelagic claims to the Paracels, by drawing baselines around the whole group, despite the fact that China is a continental, not an archipelagic state under the terms of UNCLOS.
China's declaration would expand the area of sea under its jurisdiction to about 3 million square kilometers from the present 370,000. ASEAN as a group made no protest5, even though China's action leaves open the threat that China might in future make similar claims to the Spratlys, including the possibility of declaring a 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the whole archipelago. 6 Others, including the United States, made only feeble protest, despite the obvious implications for maritime passage.
As China gets longer legs, others dither
So far, the ASEANs have avoided cutting separate deals with China, 7 but that may be only a matter of time. They know that the Chinese see time as a strategic asset.. When the Filipinos first began exploring for oil off Palawan in the 1970s, Huang Hua, Mao's foreign minister, said that China would confiscate all of the Spratlys in due course. 8 Despite these clear warnings over many years, the ASEAN states with claims in the South China Sea have made no effort to coordinate their military procurement policies, build complementary force structures, or establish any kind of regional force to deter Beijing. 9 It is always the instinct of the weak to be eaten last, even if in this case the risk is to these states' independence, rather than to their continued existence as sovereign entities.
Vietnam lost the Paracels when it was attacked by China in 1974, at a time when China was a supposed ally―a nice exercise in realpolitik. Vietnam would like to bring countervailing power to bear against China, but is unlikely to be able to do so. Vietnam, despite its long and bloody struggle for independence, has now lost it.
China cannot yet provide air cover over the Spratlys. So taking the Paracels from Vietnam was a pushover, but the Spratlys are not. But China has built a 7,000 foot runway on Woody island in the Paracels, long enough to accommodate Su-27 'Flanker' aircraft that it has bought from Russia. Fuel storage facilities have recently been added.
