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APPENDIX A: THREATS TO THE MARITIME DOMAIN
 The National Srategy for Maritime Security details the threats posed to the maritime domain. The explanation of these threats is repeated below for convenience.
 
Section II Threats to Maritime Security
 "America, in this new century, again faces new threats. Instead of massed armies, we face stateless networks; we face killers who hide in our own cities. We must confront deadly technologies. To inflict great harm on our country, America’s enemies need to be only right once. Our intelligence and law enforcement professionals in our government must be right every single time.
 
President Bush
Washington, D.C.
17 December 2004
 
 Complexity and ambiguity are hallmarks of today's security environment, especially in the maritime domain. In addition to the potential for major combat operations at sea, terrorism has dramatically increased the nature of non-military, transnational and asymmetric threats in the maritime domain that the United States and its allies and strategic partners must be prepared to counter. Unlike traditional military scenarios in which adversaries and theaters of action are clearly defined, these nonmilitary, transnational threats often demand more than purely military undertakings to be defeated.
 
 Unprecedented advances in telecommunications and dramatic improvements in international commercial logistics have combined to increase both the range and effects of such illegal activities, providing the physical means to transcend even the most secure borders and to move rapidly across great distances. Adversaries that take advantage of such transnational capabilities have the potential to cause serious damage to global, political, and economic security. The maritime domain in particular presents not only a medium by which these threats can move, but offers a broad array of potential targets that fit the terrorists' operational objectives of achieving mass casualties and inflicting catastrophic economic harm. While the variety of actors threatening the maritime domain continues to grow in number and capability, they can be broadly grouped as nation-states, terrorists, and transnational criminals and pirates. Defeating the threat of the widely dispersed terrorist networks that present an immediate danger to U.S. national security interests at home and abroad remains our foremost objective.
 
Nation-State Threats
 The prospect of major regional conflicts erupting, escalating, and drawing in major powers should not be discounted. Nonetheless, in the absence of inter-state conflict, individual state actions represent a more significant challenge to global security. Some states provide safe havens for criminals and terrorists, who use these countries as bases of operations to export illegal activities into the maritime domain and into other areas of the globe. The probability of a hostile state using a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is expected to increase during the next decade6 An alternative danger is that a foreign state will provide critical advanced conventional weaponry, V/MD components, delivery systems and related materials, technologies, and weapons expertise to another rogue state or a terrorist organization that is willing to conduct WMD attacks. WMD issues are of the greatest concern since the maritime domain is the likely venue by which WMD will be brought into the United States.
 
Terrorist Threats
 Non-state terrorist groups that exploit open borders challenge the sovereignty of nations and have an increasingly damaging effect on international affairs. With advanced telecommunications, they can coordinate their actions among dispersed cells while remaining in the shadows. Successful attacks in the maritime domain provide opportunities to cause significant disruption to regional and global economies. Today's terrorists are increasing their effectiveness and reach by establishing links with other like-minded organizations around the globe. Some terrorists groups have used shipping as a means of conveyance for positioning their agents, logistical support, and generating revenue. Terrorists have also taken advantage of criminal smuggling networks to circumvent border security measures.
 
 Terrorists have indicated a strong desire to use WMD7. prospect creates a more complex and perilous security situation, further aggravated by countries that are unable to account for or adequately secure their stockpiles of such weapons and associated materials. This circumstance, coupled with increased access to the technology needed to build and employ those weapons, increases the possibility that a terrorist attack involving WMD could occur. Similarly, bioterrorism appears particularly suited to use by smaller but sophisticated groups because this tactic is exceedingly difficult to detect in comparison to other mass-effects weapons.
 
 Terrorists can also develop effective attack capabilities relatively quickly using a variety of platforms, including explosives-laden suicide boats8 and light aircraft; merchant and cruise ships as kinetic weapons to ram another vessel, warship, port facility, or offshore platform; commercial vessels as launch platforms for missile attacks; underwater swimmers to infiltrate ports; and unmanned underwater explosive delivery vehicles. Mines are also an effective weapon because they are low cost, readily available, easily deployed, difficult to counter and require minimal training. Terrorists can also take advantage of a vessel's legitimate cargo, such as chemicals, petroleum, or liquefied natural gas, as the explosive component of an attack. Vessels can be used to transport powerful conventional explosives or WMD for detonation in a port or alongside an offshore facility.
 

6 Mapping the Global Future, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC: December 2004.
7 The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, p.15.
8 This maritime mode of terrorist attack has been established, tested, and repeated. The terrorist group al-Qaida in October 2000 successfully attacked the USS Cole in Yemen with an explosives-laden suicide small boat and 2 years later attacked the French oil tanker M/V Limburg.

 
 The U.S. economy and national security are fully dependent upon information technology and the information infrastructure9. Terrorists might attempt cyber attacks to disrupt critical information networks or attempt to cause physical damage to information systems that are integral to the operation of marine transportation and commerce systems. Tools and methodologies for attacking information systems are becoming widely available, and the technical abilities and sophistication of terrorists groups bent on causing havoc or disruption is increasing.
 
 However, the nature and motivations of these new adversaries, their determination to obtain destructive powers hitherto available only to the world’s strongest states, and the greater likelihood that they will use weapons of mass destruction against us, make today's security environment more complex and dangerous.
 
 Prevent Our Enemies from Threatening Us, Our Allies, and Our Friends
with Weapons of Mass Destruction
 Goal V of the National Security Strategy of the United States
 
Transnational Criminal and Piracy Threats
 The continued growth in legitimate international commerce in the maritime domain has been accompanied by growth in the use of the maritime domain for criminal purposes. The smuggling of people, drugs, weapons, and other contraband, as well as piracy and armed robbery against vessels, pose a threat to maritime security. Piracy and incidents of maritime crime tend to be concentrated in areas of heavy commercial maritime activity, especially where there is significant political and economic instability, or in regions with little or no maritime law enforcement capacity. Today's pirates and criminals are usually well organized and well equipped with advanced communications, weapons, and high-speed craft. The capabilities to board and commandeer large underway vessels - demonstrated in numerous piracy incidents - could also be employed to facilitate terrorist acts.
 
 Just as the world's oceans are avenues for a nation's overseas commerce, they are also the highways for the import or export of illegal commodities. Maritime drug trafficking10 generates vast amounts of money for international organized crime syndicates and terrorist organizations. Laundered through the international financial system, this money provides a huge source of virtually untraceable funds. These monetary assets can then be used to bribe government officials, bypass established financial controls, and fund additional illegal activities, including arms trafficking, migrant smuggling, and terrorist operations. Further, these activities can ensure a steady supply of weapons and cash for terrorist operatives, as well as the means for their clandestine movement.
 

9 The National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace is part of our overall effort to protect the Nation. It is an implementing component of the National Strategy for Homeland Security and is complemented by a National Strategy for the Physical Protection of Critical Infrastructures and Key Assets.
10 The National Drug Control Strategy outlines U.S. goals in this area.

 
Environmental Destruction
 Intentional acts that result in environmental disasters can have far-reaching, negative effects on the economic viability and political stability of a region. Additionally, in recent years, competition for declining marine resources has resulted in a number of violent confrontations as some of the world's fishers resort to unlawful activity. These incidents underscore the high stakes for the entire world as diminishing resources, such as fish stocks, put increasing pressure on maritime nations to undertake more aggressive actions. These actions continue to have the potential to cause conflict and regional instability. Similarly, massive pollution of the oceans, whether caused by terrorists or individuals who undertake intentional acts in wanton disregard for the consequences, could result in significant damage to ecosystems and undermine the national and economic security of the nations that depend on them.
 
Illegal Seaborne Migration
 International migration is a long-standing issue that will remain a major challenge to regional stability, and it will be one of the most important factors affecting maritime security through the next 10 years. Transnational migration, spurred by a decline of social well-being or internal political unrest, has become common over the past decades. It will continue to drive the movement of many people, with the potential to upset regional stability because of the strain migrants and refugees place on fragile economies and political systems. In some countries the collapse of political and social order prompts maritime mass migrations, such as the ones the United States has experienced from Cuba and Haiti. The humanitarian and enforcement efforts entailed by the management of such migrations require a significant commitment of security resources.
 
 The potential for terrorists to take advantage of human smuggling networks in attempts to circumvent border security measures cannot be ignored. As security in our ports of entry, at land-border crossings, and at airports continues to tighten, criminals and terrorists will likely consider our relatively undefended coastlines to be less risky alternatives for unlawful entry into the United States.


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