Prologue

 Oceans, seas and waterways unite the nations of our water planet paradoxically called Earth. Unlike ties on land, the oceans, though delineated and apportioned to some extent are still shared as the common heritage of mankind. With ever enlarging volumes of sea borne trade and larger dependence upon ocean resources, maritime issues are becoming increasingly sensitive. Along with positive developments such as maritime cooperation and ocean trading, attention is also being given to ocean security.

　

 Moreover there has been a trade shift from Euro-Atlantic to Asia-Pacific. The US trade volume in the Asia-Pacific region is now 1.5 times than that of the Atlantic. The sea lanes of communications (SLOC) are the main arteries of the Asia-Pacific economies. Hence SLOC security and their access to resources and their markets have become a fundamental factor for the development of the East-Pacific region.

　

 For Japan and East Pacific countries, energy and security are inextricably intertwined. Japan is the world's fourth largest consumer of energy after US, China and Russia. Moreover the rising demand for energy will further contribute to increased oil prices. Already Japan's domestic energy prices are among the highest in the industrialised world. Moreover a movement away from nuclear energy due to domestic political pressures or economic reasons could further increase Japan's oil imports. Premium gasoline prices in Japan are roughly 230% higher than in the USA and 45% higher than in the UK. The economic burden associated with these higher energy costs is increasing and as a result, Japan can no longer ignore her dependence on the international community.

 Oil is becoming more and more precious and will remain the dominant fuel in the primary energy mix with a share of 40% according to the International Energy Agency report of Nov. 2000. Moreover the demand for natural gas will rise much faster than oil and is expected to surpass even coal after 2010. Moreover China and India with ample coal reserves and robust electricity demand will contribute to more than two-thirds of the increase in worlds demand for coal.

　

 Japan is also particularly vulnerable to any disruption of sea-borne shipments of oil and natural gas either by an act of war or supply shocks, due to consumer embargo (such as economic sanctions) or oil production policies. The challenges to regional stability in Northeast Asia and conflict over Taiwan, the dispute over the spartleys and the depletion of fishing stocks are all potential sources for regional instability.

　

The Chinese dilemma

 China is one of the major players on the Asian-Pacific economic scene and her sheer size and weight and growing consumerism and higher per capita incomes poses a challenge to other Asian economies. For example if the Chinese economy continues to grow at its present pace for another decade, its requirement of energy alone would hike up energy prices to new peaks. Hence China, which for a long time was a self-reliant country now depends greatly on SLOCS for its trade and energy supplies. With its entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO), China's foreign trade and shipping will considerably expand in the coming years. The market openings to agricultural produce will similarly benefit the ocean trade.

　

 SLOC security is hence crucial to the sustainable development of the Chinese economy since 90% of its foreign trade is by sea transportation. China's rapid economic growth and industrialisation in the last two decades has led to a dramatic increase in the demand for maritime transportation.

　

 China's import and export volume was US$ 474.3 billion in 2000 as compared with US$ 135.63 billion in 1991, a 2.5 fold increase in ocean trade. Shipping capacity in China is projected to reach 656 million tons in 2005, compared to 383 million tons in 1998. As China emerged as a trading giant, its merchant fleet also expanded from a handful of vessels to become the world's third largest behind Greece and Japan. U.S. The Department of Transport figures show that China owned 2,033 merchant ships (excluding Hong Kong's 551-strong fleet) at the end of last year, compared with 2,915 for Greece and 2,722 for Japan. China has also one of the world's biggest fishing fleets.

　

 China presently is the world's third largest shipbuilder after Japan and South Korea and ranks third in ship exports. With the plan to expand its shipbuilding capacity to 3.5 million tons by 2005, China State Shipbuilding Corp expects to become one of the worlds top five shipbuilders.

　

 The volume of containers handled by Chinese ports has surged four-fold between 1990 and 1995. By the end of 2000, the ports of China handled more than 10% of the Asian total. China is to build new ports in Guangxi Province in order to open new outlets for its southwestern provinces. Shanghai plans to build a new deep-water container port by 2002, which will allow access to the sea for fifth and sixth generation container ships carrying between 5,000 and 6,000 TEUs.

　

 Beijing is interacting with other countries in the region for a multi-channel multidimensional and multi-faceted new economic cooperation. China is a full dialogue member of Asean as also Asean +3 of the Mekong Delta sub-region, ARF (CSCAP) and APEC. Both India and China are keen to accelerate the Mekong Ganga collaboration (MGC) where the recently joined four member countries - Combodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar (CLVM) constitute a single landmass which provides strategic accessibility to the Indian Ocean from the heartland of Asia-Pacific.

　

 Myanmar has emerged as the Sino-Indian strategic signpost on either side of the Malacca divide. India will be the other major country in this region of over 2 1/2 billion people. Hence India and China will be the two pillars for maintaining stability and peace if cooperation is given a larger dividend than confrontation.

 Nonetheless, China is also the largest supplier of weapons as also nuclear material and missiles to Pakistan, North Korea, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Hence Japan's neighbours - China and North Korea and also India's neighbours - China and Pakistan makes China the common hub which merits careful analysis. Beijing's man in space programme is an indication of her technology progress.

 China's subregional initiative is the development of the backward regions of South and South East Asia termed the 'Kunming initiative' which focusses on the resource rich Yunnan province in China's South West sector. The rationale for India and China to work closely within ASEAN would be mutually advantageous to the economic development of this region.

　

 Moreover, India is not a member of APEC of which Japan, China and the United States play an important part. At the recent APEC summit in Thailand, President Bush highlighted the effects of terrorism on trade and economic progress. However some developing countries felt that overarching anti-terrorist measures such as container and cyber security may be counter productive to the less developed countries.

　

 And lastly the initiative of structuring an Asian Economic Community such as JACIK (Japan, Asean, China, India and Korea) which combine fourteen of the largest and fastest growing economies with a population of 3 billion which is half of the world's population and with a GNP of over $ 7.2 trillion which is larger than EU or NAFTA will have a big market. Multilaterism, is the lifebuoy of globalisation for attracting investments, resources and technology.

　

 It is therefore pragmatic to encourage closer cooperation, joint ventures, transfer of technology, greater accountability and market strategy in order to attract resources for seabed mining, acquaculture and protection of endangered living and non-living resources such as coral, mangroves and depleting fish stocks.

　

 India's capabilities in hydrography and oceanography for the exploitation and exploration of seabed resources will be cost effective by 2020 and hence merits a closer look for like-minded practicing democracies such as Japan.

　

The Indian Ocean and Energy Security

 The volatile Indian ocean region which could be described as the 'Eurasian Energy Heartland of the Third World' in spite of low per capita income and sub level economic standards has become the link ocean for energy flows to achieve the political and economic aspirations particularly of developing countries. The increasing salience of the Indian Ocean can be seen:

　

　

 All this has contributed to changes in the management of maritime security in this region where only 10 littorals are privy to 65 percent of the world's oil reserves.

　

 Again the quest for energy security, consciously or unconsciously, is getting tangled in the geo polities and geo-economic ranging from 'clash of civilisations' and advent of terrorism to disposal capital which is assuming greater importance than fire power with more emphasis on military-technical advancement and market penetration.

　

The Trade dimension

 The seas in the Asia-Pacific are amongst the busiest in the world. Approximately 33% of worlds shipping moves through Southeast Asian SLOCS.

　

 The energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific region currently accounts for nearly 75 per cent of the total imports. 80,000 tankers, LNG/LPG carriers and containers traverse the Indian Ocean annually. The majority of vessels pass through the Hormuz, Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits and in addition navigate the South China Seas through which pass 41,000 ships annually. Singapore is the worlds largest trans-shipment port. More than 330 shipping lines now operate services through Singapore to 610 ports in 130 countries.

　

 Four of the world five largest ports are located in Asia which are Singapore, Shangai, Nagoya and Hongkong. High trade volumes have led to significant Asia-Pacific interests in developing merchant flects and shipping facilities.

　

 Moreover Asian countries own 34% and manufacture 72% of the world's merchant fleet tonnage. The major commodities shipped though north bound East Asian Slocs include crude oil from the Gulf as well as grain, coal and iron ore bound for Northeast Asian countries. Again Southbound East Asian SLOCS consists primarily of manufactured products for Southeast Asia and Europe with crude oil being the biggest single cargo in terms of volume, while finished consumer goods are the dominating cargo in terms of value. LNG shipments through the South China Seas constituting two-third's of the worlds overall LNG trade.

　

 The busiest route is the shallow and narrow passages of the Straits of Malacca. About 26 tankers including three fully loaded super tankers pass through Malacca Straits daily with 9.5 million barrels of oil. About 75 per cent of Japans oil imports are carried through the Malacca Straits. The closure accidentally or deliberately of this crucial choke point of SLOCS which is only 1.5 miles at it narrowest point will substantially increase transit times and freight rates.

　

 The Straits located in Northeast Asia are the Tsushima, Tsugaru, Osumi and Soya (La Perouse) Straits. The Straits of Tsugaru connect the Sea of Japan with the North Pacific Ocean. Attempts to the block these straits would cause serious concerns to countries in this region including Russia.

　

Comprehensive Security Challenges to Asian SLOCS

 Samuel Huntington stated that while at the macro or global level of world politics, the primary clash of civilisations is between the West and the rest. But at the micro level, it is between Islam and the others. It is interesting to observe that India has more Muslims than in the neighbouring Islamic States of Pakistan and Bangladesh.

　

 Similarly Iran which has the second largest oil and gas reserves is also a neighbour of Russia which has the largest gas reserves in the world. This in turn may become the object of a 'New Great Game' due to the vast reserves of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Seas region.

　

 Moreover two-thirds of the worlds proven oil and one third of its national gas reserves are controlled by the Persian Gulf States with Asia's demand for oil growing by more than 6 million barrels per day. Asia now accounts for 82 percent of the global demand. Hence the quest for energy which includes availability, accessibility and acceptability for social and environmental reasons are getting intermeshed in the geo-politics of trade and terrorism which merits an ongoing dialogue for conflict resolution and international cooperation.

　

 USA also depends on the Indian Ocean for the movement of about fifty different strategic materials such as magnesium, cobalt, titanium, tin, nickel, tungsten, iron and copper.

　

 Economic growth will therefore necessarily rely to a large extent on the stability and security of SLOCS which may be disrupted causing incalculable losses due to some of the undermentioned reasons.

　

Consolidated Ocean Web of Communication (COWOC)

 The globlisation of economic activity has resulted in a paradigm shift in the maritime world which has coined a new terminology 'Consolidated Ocean Web of Communication' (COWOC) which integrates Sea Lanes of Communications with the various distribution systems forming an organic complex that props up the logistic support systems that are essential to world economy.

　

 SLOC is the route taken by a ship to transit from A to B. In maritime and economic parlance, it should be the shortest distance for the economical and timely delivery of cargo. SLOCs are the arteries of a region and serve as an umbilical cord for the country's economy.

　

 But during confrontation, SLOC translates itself as the strategic path varying in course and distance depending on the geography of the landmass, reefs and shallows as also the locations of ports and harbours. Hence to the military, SLOCs are an instrument of maritime power with geography being the determinator for the forces being deployed to support friends or deter adversaries.

　

 To a politician, it is however the state of relations with countries located along the sea route that will develop a strategy for the security of SLOCs. Hence there is a significant link between SLOCs and geography in the context of ocean strategy. The subject of SLOC security is therefore closely linked to the maritime cooperative mechanism leading to the expansion of navies, which inevitably is followed by an arms race resulting in a tortuous and contested arms control regime.

　

 India's security concerns stretch across a broad spectrum. They are at global, regional and local levels with no clear distinction or division between them as sea-lanes in this ice free ocean are proximate to the Asian landmass, and pass through narrow choke points, which can be interfered with. The threats to SLOCs can be classified into military and territorial conflicts and disputes over some islets. The second being non traditional threats such as narco-terrorism, drug trafficking and illegal migration. Global recession is the other aspect, as lower prices will adversely effect the welfare economics of the Gulf States leading to dissatisfaction and therefore, encouragement to fundamentalists.

　

 The internal factors are the making of the maritime community itself due to poor seamanship, crew incompetence and unsatisfactory ship husbandry as 60 of the 77 tankers lost at sea during 80's were over 20 years old. The IMO has adopted an instrument titled 'interim measures for combating of unsafe practices associated with the trafficking or transport of migrants by sea'. They are all sensitive factors affecting the maritime security of the region.

　

 The ongoing naval build-up by regional countries would be another threat to SLOC security. In order to ensure sea-lane security many countries in the region, including a number of medium and small states, are buidling up their maritime capabilities by acquisition programmes. It is estimated that approx 200 major warships were originally planned for procurement by the end of this century. Furthermore analysts have forecast that more than a dozen modern submarines will be ordered by Asean countries. The arms trade has grown by 8.5% in 1999 to a value of $ 51.6 billion with South and East Asian countries share doubling primarily due to China's defence spending. The Indian Navy by themselves will be operating 20 submarines and 2 aircraft carriers by the next decade. The region will therefore continue to be one of the most lucrative markets for arms dealers. But it can be said with little exaggeration that the real arms race in Southeast Asia is among the suppliers, rather than the recipients. The simmering down of bi-polar deterrence and the expansion of national soverignty notified by UNCLOS III has become a significant motive for smaller regional powers to modernise and expand their navies.