In this study, to propose an optimum design method of tsunami breakwater using the suffering probability acquired by launching multiple is used. In order to install the probability, the Monte Carlo method was used for the prediction of tsunami height in the bay. The tsunami calculation was considered random tidal height, latitude, longitude, vertical fault deformation and calculative accuracy.

　

At the Nankaido, both the location of the earthquake and calculation accuracy distributes nearly normal distribution. And the magnitude fits the weibull distribution. "The tsunami suffering probability" is defined by 5,000 times iterative calculation in the Monte Carlo simulation.

　

At the districts where the tsunami breakwater is under construction, the risk of tsunami disaster will be underestimated. Therefore, the government should reconsider the hazard map and evacuation plan. When the allowable tsunami suffering probability is fixed, the best length of the tsunami breakwater can be decided simply.

　

　

A part of the present investigation was accomplished with the support of the Science Research Fund of the Ministry of Education (Grant-in-Aid for Science Research (C)(10680446)), for which the authors express their appreciation. The authors acknowledge their sincere thanks to Mr. Higashitani and Mr. Kawano for their assistance of making data.

　

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