Figure 4.1-12 Correlation between the cumulative ice index for the 40BC and freight costs
The MVS method was used for the 40BC to determine the correlation between cumulative ice index for ten years from 1980 to 1989 and the freight costs. Despite fairly wide variance, it became clear that a correlation exists between the ice index and freight costs. Because freight costs for the 40BC on the Suez Canal route are US$39.60/t, the Canal route is more economical than the NSR in the case that the cumulative ice index is lower than -26,000. Table 4.4-10 shows the cumulative ice index by month for the ten-year period 1980-1989, where the hatched columns indicate unfavorable conditions for the NSR with cumulative ice indexes lower than -26,000. When the 40BC leaves the port of Hamburg for Yokohama between February and May, the Suez Canal route is preferable. According to this route-switching criterion, the ASVS was run for the 40BC and 50BC, based on the data for the years 1960, 1970 and 1980. As an example of these calculations, the results for 1980 are shown below (Tables 4.4-11 and 4.4-12). Each voyage includes each three days for unloading and loading at each port.
Table 4.4-13 shows the summary of results for 1960, 1970 and 1980. Freight rates for a 40BC passing through the Suez Canal three or four times per year range between $35.60/t and $36.20/t, while the corresponding range for the 50BC is $20.10-20.70/t. Due to the superior performance of the 50BC in capital cost, cargo capacity and sea speed in open water, the 50BC has the better freight rates than the 40BC. In this simulation it was assumed that icebreaker escort would always be available immediately by request and the flat rate was adopted. The 50BC could therefore be superior to the 40BC, although the 40BC possesses excellent icebreaking capability.
