Thanks to the policy of "glasnost", Russian data on weather and ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean are steadily becoming available, and unprocessed data are expected to be analyzed through international collaboration. Through collaboration in the field of physical oceanography, the development of appropriate provisions is expected to proceed apace as the results of new observations are revealed.
The development of real-time delivery of navigational information is in the implementation phase, as the full capability of satellite remote sensing technology comes on stream. With future progress in sensing technology, new satellites will be launched into polar orbit, making the dream of establishing optimum routing in polar ice-covered waters a reality.
To provide the technology to design and construct ships capable of navigating icy waters, both profitability (cost-performance) and design specifications must be taken into account. The practicality of Arctic operations has been demonstrated on numerous occasions, and the currently established level of navigational performance is sufficient to make those operations practical. Of course, the pursuit of continued improvement of ice-transiting performance of ships is a never-ending technical quest, with no final goal. A certain amount of further research will be needed to determine the required design, since the specifications depend on the operational mode of the vessel, which in turn depends on the frequency of icebreaker support and the kind of support needed.
In principle, NSR shipping will have to depend exclusively on Russian icebreaker support. From the era of the Russian tsars through the Soviet era to the present day, Russia has conducted an uninterrupted program of research and development in icebreaker technology. Constant improvements have made Russian icebreakers some of the best in the world. With the exception of special technical problems with respect to the navigational support of Western vessels, it is recommended that Russian icebreaker technology be used for the time being, regardless of evaluations of the cost-performance of Western designs.
Overall implementation of the infrastructure required for land-based navigational support facilities and equipment and rescue facilities is difficult to forecast at this time. Unless investment in these facilities comes from abroad, very little new installation can be expected over the near term. If navigation is only carried out during the summer, when the dangers are relatively few, it is probable that, as Russia asserts, there are no absolute conditions requiring the installation of such facilities, barring the occurrence of sporadic and unforeseeable accidents. However, ice conditions are known to vary dramatically over the course of any given year, so even in summer navigation unforeseen hazards can occur. Specific scenarios for infrastructure implementation should therefore be carefully prepared. Moreover, although crisis management measures are already prepared to handle incidents of marine pollution caused by accidents, specific action plans to prevent and eliminate pollution leave some room for uncertainty, and the possible damages and fines are difficult to estimate.
NSR operators must be highly experienced in icy-water navigation. In particular, operation of vessels with the support of an icebreaker is a highly specialized mode of navigation, requiring a seasoned hand in painstaking, moment-by-moment judgment of operating conditions. Ensuring that NSR crews have sufficient experience is extremely important, and training with navigation simulators may be needed. In view of the prevailing customs in the shipping market, and given the vast distances that must be navigated and the inordinately long travel times involved, it will likely be difficult to enlist sufficiently skilled guides for NSR crews.
Present conditions are not conducive to the smooth implementation of NSR shipping. Russia remains in economic turmoil, and the conditions listed above have yet to be satisfied. Given a recovery in Russia's economic fortunes, however, several of these criteria may be met over the short term. In the near future, most icy-water shipping will surely be based on satellite technology; in this sense, preparation for the age of NSR shipping is already well under way.
