Exhibit 1: Derivation of Forecast Throughput Revenue
Pro forma Analysis of T18 Operations
Calendar year ending December 31
(in thousands)
The forecasts presented in this exhibit were prepared using information from the sources indicated and assumption provided by,or reviewed with and agreed to by,Port management,as described in the accompanying text inevitably,some of the assumptions used to develop the forecasts will not be realized and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur. Therefore,there are likely to be differences between the forecast and actual results,and those differences may be material.
(a) Base Forecast. BST Associates.
(b) Source: Port of Seattle.
(c) Source: Port of Seattle.
(d) Source: Based on data provided by BST Associates and other industry experts.
Assumed to escalate at 3.0% Per year. Unit revenue is representative of current market conditions.
Actual unit revenue is negotiated between individual shipping lines and the operator.
2. Other Terminal Revenue
In addition to throughput charges, the T18 operator also receives revenue from rail facility and rail container charges, dockage fees, and container maintenance charges. Exhibit 2 presents the summary of total projected revenues to the T18 operator from sources other than throughput revenue. Other terminal revenue is forecast to range from $5,100,000 in 1999 to $6,089,000 in 2005.
a) Rail Facility and Rail Container Charges
On-dock rail facilities are used primarily to move import containers from the dock to other rail facilities. The on-dock rail capabilities will be expanded at T18 as part of the Bond Improvements. Because T18 is currently serving primarily as an export facility, only approximately 5 percent of the containers enter or leave the terminal by rail. The remaining 95 percent of the containers are transported by truck. The use of on-dock rail facilities is forecast to increase as the volume of imports increases. The Port estimates that by the year 2001. 20 percent of the containers will be moved by on-dock rail. For this analysis, it is assumed that the use of on-dock rail will remain at 5 percent through the year 2003, and will then increase by 5 percent per year until it reaches a total of 20 percent.
In order to recover the costs of on-dock rail facilities, the operator has historically assessed a rail facility charge of approximately $20 for each container moved to or from T18 via rail. This revenue has been shared equally by the Port and the operator. In addition to the rail facility charge, the current operator charged approximately $25 per container (rail container charge) to recover the costs of loading the containers onto rail cars.
