The robustness that ASEAN displayed over Cambodia is a thing of the past. Now China's size and proximity are powerful reminders of past superiority and future threat.3 Combined with the power of China's diaspora, which they fear might in certain circumstances act as a fifth column, these dimensions of Chinese power intimidate the Southeast Asians. They are not capable of practising realpolitik against a master of the game.
Knowing they will always have to live with China, the ASEANs are unsure of how much they can depend on external support, or what that might involve, such as a militarily stronger Japan. Beijing's strategy is to convince them that they should accommodate Chinese power now, lest the price of future accommodation be made higher. 'Remember Saigon', and deal with us.
ASEAN： Enlargement is a source of weakness, not strength
Those who see ASEAN as a "third pole" of security in East Asia also play China's game, since Beijing seeks to flatter ASEAN by encouraging its willingness to "stand up" to the United States and resist American "triumphalism". After still-troubled Cambodia is admitted, ASEAN will include all ten Southeast Asian states. But strength comes from unity, not numbers.
ASEAN's post cold war enlargement is a source of weakness because it threatens to undermine the Association's cohesion, and widen its intramural differences. The admission of still-communist and still-distrusted Vietnam in 1995 means that ASEAN can no longer count on the cement of political compatibility hitherto critical to its success. The ASEANs admitted friendless Burma in the hope of preventing China from benefiting from Burma's isolation. But the Philippines and Thailand are now democracies which deplore the international criticism that Burma's membership is attracting. The admittance of Cambodia will only make that problem worse.
Vietnam's entry also deepened the divisions of strategic interest within the Association. Vietnam joined ASEAN in dubious search of protection from China. But Thailand, still fearing Vietnam, continues to look to China for strategic security. That gives China immense leverage. The ASEAN states also have conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea, which allows China to divide and rule.
China's push into the South China Sea： ASEAN in disarray
It did not take long after the end of the Cold War for China's post Cold War strategic latitude to have manifestations in maritime Southeast Asia. Miscalculation by the Philippines did much to let China into the South China Sea. By insisting that the United States leave its bases in the Philippines in 1991, the Filipinos removed the chief means by which America could protect them.
