In return for large-scale economic aid, the United States hopes, North Korea might halt both its missile program and its nuclear ambitions. A new deal has apparently been reached, but can it last? That seems unlikely, because the North Koreans have become accustomed to being rewarded for bad behaviour. They are also adept at divide and rule among the United States, South Korea and Japan. But if North Korea continues to develop both missiles and nuclear technology, the United States might soon have to contemplate the interdiction of North Korea's missile exports on the high seas.7
While the United States seeks to play this down, Japan and South Korea suspect that China is helping North Korea with its missile program. Motivated by perception of common threat, Japan and South Korea are overcoming the legacy of the past, and moving towards strategic alignment. They have in effect set aside their territorial dispute over the Takeshima/Tokdo islands in the Tsushima strait. Common interest in SLOC protection is aiding this rapprochement.
North Korea's missile launch also prompted Japan to begin cooperation with the US to develop Theatre Missile Defenses (TMD). Japan had long been dithering on TMD, partly on grounds of cost, but mostly because Japan was intimidated by China. But the North Korean threat did much to increase the attractiveness of TMD to Japan, even though the technology will take some time to develop.
Japan has firmly rejected China's complaints that Japan's acquisition of TMD would be 'destabilizing' and lead to an 'arms race'. The main reason for these objections is that TMD could undermine the value of China's minimal nuclear deterrent. China has been able to get away with a low cost minimum deterrent posture, that is, having just enough 'counter-value' (city-busting) ICBMs to ward off vulnerability to nuclear attack. As the US and Russia have drawn down their nuclear arsenals, the relative value of China's minimum deterrent has been increasing, without attracting much attention.
China has been moving towards more mobile, more accurate solid fuel missiles. Beijing is also building smaller, more accurate warheads, including probably multiple warheads. Recent evidence has come to light that China may have obtained, through espionage, US technology which would allow it to place multiple warheads on its intercontinental ballistic missiles.8 Russia, no doubt fearing the improvements of Chinese capacity just revealed, has not chimed in with China's criticisms of TMD, even though the two countries have some arms control interests in common.9 (Ironic that Russia should now be a victim of US sloppiness in guarding its nuclear secrets!)
