China's diplomatic recognition of South Korea in 1992 showed that China had abandoned North Korea. North Korea's economy is now parlous to the point of mass starvation, and the regime seeks both security and revenue in developing ballistic missiles. It probably intends to continue its nuclear weapons program, despite US efforts to stop it. Nuclear blackmail of Japan and South Korea may be on the North's agenda, as a means of staving off the reunification of the peninsula on the South's terms.
Japan, because of its strategic vulnerabilities and large economic stake on the Korean peninsula, has a vital interest in what happens there. As a product of Japan's harsh colonial rule over Korea, it has limited influence on events, and must rely on the United States to contain North Korea. But America cannot expect Tokyo to support approaches to Pyongyang that fail to address Japan's security needs.
The United States has sought China's help in solving the Korean problem, thus giving China great leverage. The United States and China have some shared interests on the Korean peninsula. Neither wants to see North Korea collapse suddenly, especially with the South weakened by its sharp economic downturn. China, the United States and Japan all have common interests in not wanting a reunified nuclear armed Korea. And no-one wants war on the Korean peninsula.
But over the longer term, the interests of China and the United States on the Korean peninsula are unlikely to be congruent. China hates the prospect of sharing a border with a Korean state united on the South's terms, especially if American forces are still stationed there. A united Korea aligned with Japan would be an even more unwelcome development for Beijing.
Ironically, North Korea is now undermining key Chinese interests. Pyongyang's missile launch of August 1998 was the first time any country had tested such a weapon over the national territory of another. That did much to galvanize Japan into getting serious about passing the new US-Japan defense guidelines through the Diet. That legislation had been languishing since April 1998, mainly because Japan feared antagonizing China. China continues to insist that Japan should specifically exclude Taiwan from the definition of 'areas surrounding Japan' in the defense guidelines. That Japan cannot and will not do.
In any case, in Japan fear of North Korean missiles has now eclipsed fear of China's wrath. No easy options exist for solution of the North Korea problem, the roots of which lie in the nature of the regime in Pyongyang. This is a totalitarian state with a history of aggression and state-sponsored terrorism. The US now hopes that a new mixture of carrot and stick might work.
