4.2 Main Parameters in the Traffic Model
4.2.1 Forecast Years
Traffic forecast years were prepared for the years 2011 and 2021. The year 2011 was selected adjusting to the target year of Comprehensive Develop Plan (CDP) for the Bangalore urban area. The year 2021 was provided for a long term perspective of the project. These years were not necessarily corresponded to the years of construction and operation life of ELRTS.
4.2.2 Traffic Zone
The zoning system for this study consists of 83 traffic zones based on 66 census zones. The census zoning system is also used for the CDP's planning zones. The number of traffic zones seems to be enough for the analysis compared with a density of road network. Figure 4.2-1 presents the traffic zone map used for the study and Figure 4.2-2 shows the road network in the study area.
4.2.3 Population and Employment
The population of Bangalore was recorded in the decennial census. The latest census was carried out in 1991. The future population were estimated in the years 1997, 2001, 2011 and 2021 as shown in Table 4.2-1. The estimated population in 1997 is based on electricity and water connections, which number approximately 1 million. The size of the average household in Bangalore was five persons in the 1991 census. This gives a population of 5 million for 1997.
The projected population for the years 2001 and 2011 has been given from the CDP. For the year 2001, the CDP estimated a population of 5.8 million, which matches with a trend of the 1951 to 1991 figures. For the year 2011, the CDP had a population estimate of 7 million assuming a reduction in the rate of increase of population due to the development of five new independent cities built in Bangalore impact region. The projection with the trend model gives a population of 7.8 million in 2011.
