4. Travel Demand Forecast
4.1 Forecast Methodology
4.1.1 Traffic Data
Traffic data used in the report has been mainly obtained from the traffic surveys conducted in the 1994 Feasibility Study. They were :
. Household survey (with 4,000 household sample)
. Screen line traffic count survey ;
. Willingness to pay for time saving (conducted with the household survey).
These traffic data, as considering the rapid growth of population during these 3 years in Bangalore, may not have been partly reflect present traffic situation. This will influence to the parameters in the traffic forecast model.
Few problem, however, will occur for the projection of trip distribution, because the basic land use pattern of the city area has not been so much changed.
Modal split would be changed because cars and two wheelers ownership has been increased these years. But this is considered for the projection in 2011.
4.1.2 Traffic Model
The traffic model used to estimate the ridership on the LRT routes in this study are enhanced version of the model used in the 1994 feasibility study. The modeling flow chart is shown in Figure 4.1-1
The traditional four stage transportation planning process has been basically adopted for the projection of LRT demand in 2011/2021. The exceptional point is the post- distribution modal split process between LRT and other modes using the information on the Willingness to Pay Survey. This process will much influenced the LRT trips shifted from other modes.
