126,890,000 at the year 2000. It will then reach a peak population of 127,780,000 at the year 2007. Thereafter, it will continue to decline for a long period of time (see Figure 3). At 2017 the population will nearly return to the present level. By 2050 it is projected that it will diminish to 100,500,000. Furthermore, by the year 2051, as a reference projection, and thereafter, the population will continue to decline, and in 2100 it is predicted that the population will be sealed at 67,370,000.
According to the population projection based on high variant assumption, the total population will reach a peak of 129,560,000 in 2011, which is slightly behind the medium variant assumption. Thereafter, the trend will decline, and in 2050 it is predicted that the population will be reduced to 110,960,000.
On the other hand, the low variant assumption indicates that it will reach the peak population of 127,050,000 in 2004, and thereafter it will continually decline to 92,310,000 by the year 2050.
Thus, as soon as the 21st century begins, the population of Japan will also enter into the era of population decline. This puts an end to the continuous population increase. This historical change of the population trend has already affected the level of the fertility rate (population replacement level, total fertility rate - approx. 2.08 level) defined as maintaining the constant population level from the later half of the year 1970 of Japanese population).
Society with Fewer Children
The number of births has decreased from 2,090,000 in 1973 to 1,190,000 in 1995. Based on the low birth prediction for the next few years, the population of the child between the ages of 0 - 14 will start to decrease from 27,000,000 beginning in the year 1980 (see Figure 4).
Although the 1995 National Census showed that the population of children was 20,030,000, the medium variant assumption shows the population will decrease to 18,000,000 by the year 1999. Thereafter until 2014, the population will be temporarily stabilized at around 18,300,000 level. However, after 2015 the population will reenter the 18,000,000 level.
Thereafter, the trend of the children's population will gradually decline for a long period of time. By the end of 2050 it is predicted that the population of the children will be reduced to around the 13,000,000 level. Based on reference projection of 2051 and thereafter, the long term declining trend will continue. The population will drop down to 12,000,000 by the year 2059, and furthermore, it will reduce to below 10,000,000 by the year 2090. Indications are that it takes approximately one century to reduce the population of the children into half the size.
In making assumptions of the population trend of children when examining the future fertility rate from the high and low variant assumptions, the high variant assumption shows that due to the second baby boom the population will temporarily decrease. However, it will recover to 20,000,000 by the year 2010. Nevertheless, in the long term the population will continuously decrease due to the low fertility rate. The high variant assumption shows that in 2050 the population will reach 17,060,000, and then by 2100 it will decrease to 14,770,000
