fertility rate based on medium variant assumption will decline from 1.42 at the beginning of the year 1995 to 1.38 at the year 2000. Thereafter, a gradual upward change is predicted, and in 2030 the rate will be 1.61. Thereafter, the rate will be constant.
Population projection based on high variant assumption indicates that the total fertility rate will turn upward beginning 1997, and when it reaches 1.85 by the year 2030, it will maintain its level. The population projection based on low variant assumption shows that the current year's declining trend will continue until the year 2005 when it reaches 1.28, and thereafter, shows slight upward movement. It is projected that even after the year 2030 it will cease at the 1.38 level. The results of the future population projection will be examined.
The Arrival of an Era of the Diminishing Population
According to the 1995 National Census, the starting point of the population projection, the gross population of Japan was 125,570,000. From the findings of the population projection based on medium assumption, the population will gradually increase and reach
