The following studies have so far been made with regard to forecasting demand in the case where an LRT is introduced between the CBD and the Waterfront.
1)Pre-Feasibility Study for a CBD-Waterfront Transit System in Cape Town, Feb. 1989, by C.S.I.R
2)CBD-Waterfront Light Rail Link, Feb. 1989, by Transport Planning Branch
3)Assessing the Demand for a Light Rail Service in Cape Town, by Peter Clark
The first study is an examination of demand that was carried out before the actual development of the Waterfront and it contains predictions of transport mode use ratios and the scale of traffic facilities, etc. Regarding the forecasting methodology used in this study, it was followed by subsequent examinations and, indeed, this study can be a described as a pioneering work that indicated the basic forecast approach used by demand studies conducted after the opening of the Waterfront.
The second work updated the demand volumes of the first study by reviewing the basic data used in the first based on actual transport data obtained following the opening of the Waterfront. With regard to the forecast transport mode selection behavior of users in the event of LRT introduction, however, the second research made an examination based on the setting of a hypothesis in the same way as performed in the first study.
In the third more academic study, a questionnaire survey of stated preferences was carried out with the focus limited to users' transport mode selections following the introduction of LRT.Based on analysis of this survey, a multinominal logit model was derived.
