The forecast of annual increase is above 15 million until around 2015, and is expected to fall to 10 million in the latter half of the 2030s.
The distinctive features of population transition in India become more obvious when compared to those in China.
The current rate of increase (1995-2000) is 1.8% in India, much higher than the 1.0% in China, and the gap between the two is unlikely to be greatly narrowed in the future. Even in 2020-25, a quarter of century further on, the growth rate in India is expected to remain as high as 1.0%, being double that of China, which is expected to be 0.5%. As a result, while population growth in China is expected to rapidly slow down, in India rapid growth will continue. According to the UN's estimates (medium), the two countries swap ranks in 2045, or near the middle of the next century, and India will be the NO.1 population giant. (See Tables 1 and 2)
This difference in population growth between China and India became more evident from the latter half of the 1970s. India's population growth rate remained kept as high as 2% or above until the latter half of the 1980s. The notable and constant declining trend began to be observed only in the latter half of the 1980s. In China, on the other hand, the population growth rate has shown unusual changes ever since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Following the baby boom right after the founding of the Republic, the growth rate dropped to 1.5% in the latter half of 1950s. It then started to rise, exceeded 2% in the period between 1960 and 1975, viz., from the Great Leap Forward to the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, and reached 2.6%, far above the growth-rate in India, in the latter half of 1960s. In the latter half of the 1970s, however, China's population growth fell drastically to 1.5%, and has since continued to decline while maintaining the difference (in rates) with India's growth rate. (See Figure 3)
Thus, in contact with China, India's population is expected to continue its rapid growth. In view of the critical role played by population growth in the country's social and economic problems, it is important to carefully consider the factors which will affect its future population, and the conditions which influence them, so to avoid making the wrong decisions when setting policy.
