Chapter 3
Population in India
- Politics and Trends -
Shunichi Inoue
Professor
Faculty of Literature and Science
Nippon University
1. Population Transition in India
The Indian population in 1998 (middle of the year) was estimated to be 987 million and will likely exceed 1 billion in a year or two. As is well known, India is the world's second most populous nation, second only to China (population 1.26 billion), and with a population density of 285 per square kilometer it has, together with Bangladesh, the higher level among the major developing countries. The country is also known for its planned parenthood policy, India having been the first country in the world to introduce such as national policy, in its initial 5-year plan starting 1951, although the growth rate of its population is still as high as 1.8%, and an annual increase is over 17 million heads per year, which is the largest number in the world, easily exceeding that of China. Such population growth has imposed great burdens on the development of India, especially on the securing food production and water resources. This chapter will consider India's future population trends by reviewing its distinctive demographic features and investigating their causes.
India freed itself from British colonialism and won its independence after separating from Pakistan in 1947. The population growth of the country since then has been substantial. India's first population census after its independence, conducted in 1951, showed that the total Indian population (excepting Jammu and Kashmir where the census was impracticable due to the border dispute) was 357 million. It increased some 130% to 838.58 million (about 844 million including the estimated population in Jammu and Kashmir) over the next forty years to 1991. The average rate of population growth for the period is 2.1% per annum.
According to the United Nation's estimates of future population, which are prepared based on observations of the demographic trends up to recent years, the Indian population is expected to increase rapidly and to exceed 1.2 billion by about 2010, 1.4 billion about 2025, and 1.6 billion around 2040.
