4. Areas of Opportunity
The preceding sections provide an overview of the research activity taking place around the world. To gain insight into the areas of opportunity, the NNAP members believe that it is also useful to assess the disciplines and industry sectors in which that activity is occurring.
4A. Publications
A review of the ISI database of research publications reveals that by far the largest number of articles related to nanotechnology published from 1981 to 2001 was on the subject of semiconductors (Zucker and Darby 2005). More recently, however, the number of articles related to nanotechnology and biology, medicine, chemistry, and multidisciplinary categories have grown substantially. According to Zucker and Darby, the number of publications about nanotechnology in relation to information technology also has grown.
Nano-light Bulb up to Ten Times More Efficient
Electricity accounts for about one-third of all energy consumed in the United States, and about one-fifth of all electric energy is used for lighting. But today's lighting is remarkably inefficient. Incandescent light bulbs only convert about 5% of the electricity they draw into visible light, wasting the rest as heat. Fluorescent lights, while better, are still only about 25% efficient. By comparison, a new home furnace is typically 80% efficient, and electric motors can reach 95% efficiency. Enormous opportunities exist, therefore, for saving energy through more efficient lighting.
Semiconductor-based light emitting diodes, or LEDs, can produce light much more efficiently. Early LEDs converted about 50% of electricity into light―10 times better than incandescent bulbs―but the light was a single color or wavelength and not suitable for general illumination. Developing cost-effective LEDs that produce white light―that is, light with many different wavelengths―has been a major challenge.
Researchers at the Department of Energy's Sandia National Laboratories have demonstrated a white light source with LED efficiency. The device uses a conventional LED emitting near-ultraviolet (410 nm) light to illuminate a range of nanosized semiconductor particles, or "quantum dots." The dots in turn emit light of many different colors. By mixing different sized quantum dots it is possible to create a device that produces light of any desired color, including white, as shown in the figure at the bottom left. Today, researchers are working to increase the Lifetimes of these high-efficiency white-light LEDs to make them commercially viable.
Courtesy of J. Simmons, Sandia National Laboratories
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The quantum leap forward in energy efficient lighting offered by white-light LEDs can substantially impact the nation's energy consumption. If enough existing lights were replaced by LEDs to cut in half the amount of electricity used for lighting, it would reduce energy use by the amount of energy produced by 50 nuclear power plants.
4B. Patents
Based on a search of the USPTO database (Huang et al. 2004), the total number of nanotechnology-related patents increased by 217% from 1996 to 2003, contrasting with an overall increase in patents during the same period of 57%. From 1976 to 2003, about 30% of nanotechnology patents were in the chemical/catalysts/pharmaceuticals industries, 15% were in the electronics industry, and about 10% were in the materials industry. From 1997 to 2003, the chemical/catalysts/pharmaceutical sectors were observed to have the most significant growth of nanotechnology patenting activity.
Figure 5.
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Target Industries for Companies Invotved in R&D, Manufacture, Sale, and Use of Nanotechnology in 2004 (Total Number of Companies = 599)
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Source: EmTech Research 2005
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In 2003, four of the five top assignees for nanotechnology patents in 2003 were electronics companies, although the field of chemistry (molecular biology and microbiology) had the greatest number of nanotechnology patents both in 2003 and in previous years. Other technological fields that experienced rapid growth in patenting activity in 2003 were those relating to transistors and other solid-state devices, semiconductor device manufacturing, optical waveguides, and electric lamp and discharge (Huang et al. 2004).
More recently, according to an EmTech Research (2005) survey of approximately 600 companies involved in R&D, manufacture, sale, or use of nanotechnology, the top three companies based on the number of nanotechnology-related patents issued were IBM, Intel, and L'Oreal. Other companies that ranked highly were large, technology-based businesses.
4C. Private Sector Activity
It seems reasonable to expect that the private sector would invest in nanotechnology R&D in those areas in which relatively near-term commercial applications are forthcoming. According to the EmTech Research survey of nanotechnology suppliers (EmTech Research 2005), the two largest target industries are biomedical/life sciences (including drug diagnosis, analysis, delivery, and discovery; medical tools and materials; and genomics and proteomics research) and materials (including metals). If chemicals, plastics and films are also counted as materials, this is the single largest area. Despite strong activity in biotechnology and materials, the diversity of business activity-ranging from energy to consumer products-is just as notable.
The companies included in Figure 5 range in size, with the largest number being either very small (<10 employees) or large (>1000 employees). Small companies depend on funding from both public and private sources, including venture capital. A separate survey by Lux Research estimates that the distribution of approximately $1.1. billion in venture capital funding for nanotechnology invested between 1998 and 2004 has been predominantly in electronics and semiconductors (41%) and nanobiotechnology (40%). Other sectors include specialty chemicals and nanomaterials (14%) and instrumentation (5%) (Lux Research Inc. 2004).
4D. TAG-Identified Areas of Opportunity
As part of its review, the NNAP surveyed its TAG members to gain insight into what areas of research those experts thought were likely to yield high impact advances. Below is a selection of the near-, mid-, and long-term areas in which TAG members felt nanotechnology would make a significant impact.
Near-term (1-5 years)
・Nanocomposites with greatly improved strength-to-weight ratio, toughness, and other characteristics
・Nanomembranes and filters for water purification, desalination, and other applications
・Improved catalysts with one or more orders of magnitude less precious metal
・Sensitive, selective, reliable solid-state chemical and biological sensors
・Point-of-care medical diagnostic devices
・Long-lasting rechargeable batteries
Mid-term (5-10 years)
・Targeted drug therapies
・Enhanced medical imaging
・High efficiency, cost effective solar cells
・Improved fuel cells
・Efficient technology for water-to-hydrogen conversion
・Carbon sequestration
Long-term (20+ years)
・Drug delivery through cell walls
・Molecular electronics
・All-optical information processing
・Neural prosthetics for treating paralysis, blindness, and other conditions
・Conversion of energy from thermal and chemical sources in the environment
The opportunities identified by the TAG suggest the group's enthusiasm about the potential for technologies that will improve the quality of life for all by providing clean water, affordable energy, and better healthcare.
5. Other Leadership Factors
An additional concern worth mentioning when considering U.S. leadership in nanotechnology, and one that PCAST has studied extensively over the past year, is the relative decline in the number of U.S. undergraduate and graduate degrees in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) fields. PCAST's June 2004 Report, Sustaining the Nation's Innovation Ecosystem: Maintaining the Strength of Our Science and Engineering Capabilities (PCAST 2004) outlines data that raise serious concerns about the pace at which other countries, particularly industrialized Asian nations, are educating their citizens in STEM-related fields.
For example, in China over 39% of undergraduate degrees in 2001 were in engineering, compared with 5% in the United States. The numbers indicate that China is producing over three times as many trained engineers as the United States. Similarly, at the post-graduate level, the number of Asian citizens awarded degrees in natural science and engineering is significantly increasing, whereas the number of comparable U.S. degrees has declined in recent years. The increase in STEM talent, especially in Asia, coupled with significantly lower wage structures, threatens to lead to greater pressure, not only on U.S.-based high-tech manufacturing, but even on leading-edge R&D. While it is unclear how this shift will impact nanotechnology specifically, it is worth taking steps to ensure that the pool of U.S. nanotechnology researchers and technical workers remains strong. In fact, nanotechnology experts from the TAG who are currently engaged in university-based nanotechnology research particularly emphasized the need for high-quality U.S. students to carry out future nanotechnology research.
By reviewing the history of nanotechnology R&D funding, it is clear that the United States has been the leader in nanotechnology up to this point. Early recognition of the potential benefits of a coordinated nanotechnology R&D initiative, along with strong financial commitment across the Federal agencies, has enabled the United States to establish this leadership position. Measures of research output in the form of patents and publications further demonstrate U.S. leadership.
Despite the optimistic numbers, the trends in all categories-investment, publications, and patents-show steady erosion in the percentage lead of the United States over time. The Federal budget for nanotechnology R&D has begun to level, whereas the cumulative investment worldwide continues to grow. The NNAP notes that programmatic investments in a given area such as nanotechnology, whether by the United States or by other nations, cannot indefinitely continue their rapid increase. The significant increases in nanotechnology funding recently made by many other nations (and regions) may reflect efforts to catch-up to the United States. Nevertheless, the NNI should monitor worldwide investment and activities and remain cognizant of the U.S. competitive position; the NNAP certainly will continue to do so. And in any event, if the United States is to maintain its leadership in nanoscale science, engineering, and technology within current tight fiscal constraints, as well as to capitalize on the resulting innovations to achieve economic and other benefits, the NNI must continue to ensure that every dollar is well spent.
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