European shipbuilders like other shipbuilders in the world are subject to sharp cyclical trends.

 In the year 2000 incoming orders peaked, and we are now witnessing lower demand.

 But for us, I would say that this is just business as usual.

 As this is not the first time we have been through the cycle, we also know as surely as the wave crested in 2000, it will rise once again. This is the way things work. Of course, you do need a strong stomach to be in our business, where frenzied contracting activity is followed by a spell in the doldrums, with only to find yourselves in the fury of contracting anew.

 Despite the painful crises of years past, European shipbuilding and repair industry has managed not only to survive but to maintain a prominent role worldwide in several notable segments. The European maritime industry currently builds 64% of the world's complex ships.

 In January 2003, the European Commission recognised that ship building and repairing are a "knowledge-based industry" with a vision for the future beyond cyclical turns. The Commission notes that our industry is a key contributor to the European economy, and deserves to be treated accordingly.

 It is in the interest of the entire EU to maintain a healthy and competitive maritime industry here in Europe, anchored upon the strength of a network of 9000 firms with revenues totalling 34 billion euros, an industry which provides 350 000 direct European jobs. This is why we must seek to establish a true European policy for this high-value creating and unsubsidised industry.

 This is the underlying theme of our Leadership 2015 initiative.

　

 Please allow me to summarise for you the eight key items contained in the Initiative:

　

 Provided European officials and the ship builders drive this process to its logical conclusion, particularly through the creation of a level playing field, I am convinced that we in the European Union will enjoy a robust maritime industry with a long-term, and strategically viable future.

　

Patrick BOISSIER

　

France 2003

　

　

 The global economy and international seaborne trade continued to grow in 2002 though at a reduced level compared to former years. Measured in ton-miles preliminary figures from Fearnleys even suggest that the growth in seaborne trade could be below 0.1% though the growth in tonnes is estimated at 0.7%. Trade in oil even declined both in tonnes and ton-miles whereas trade in dry cargo grew. Figures from Lloyd's Register - Fairplay indicate that the dwt-tonnage of the global seagoing merchant fleet increased by 4.75% during 2002 or by much more than the trade. The tonnage balance - i.e. the balance between the transport capacity of the fleet and the need for tonnage - thus worsened substantially. Also in 2001 the tonnage balance worsened though to a lesser degree. The development in world seaborne trade in past years is illustrated in the accompanying graph.

　

　

 The AWES Working Group on Market and Forecast has observed developments in the market during the past year and studied them in relation to the latest forecast on the requirement for new ships, which the group prepared in 2001. The 2001 -study covers the period from 2000 to 2015.

　

 This forecast as well as earlier similar evaluations aims at indicating a likely future development based on historical data and a number of assumptions on factors of importance to the future need for new ships. The forecast focuses on the long-term trends, not on fluctuations year-by-year. The table below shows the key figures for the latest forecast as already published in last years Annual Report.

　

 It should be noted that the forecast does not take into account possible effects on seaborne trade and newbuilding requirement following from the Iraq-war and from other possible future hostilities.