Someone says that in 1997 the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conducted a war game. The scenario was destabilization in the security environment caused by degradation in the natural environment, as follows: In a former Warsaw Pact country in Eastern Europe, where the political and economic situation is confused and small-scale conflicts occur frequently, pollution of rivers and lakes combines with acid rain to damage agricultural land and create food shortages, resulting in a refugee crisis. The conflict begins when neighboring countries, with which ethnic tensions exist, take military action. The impact of a dispatch of NATO troops and other actions were analyzed and discussed Also, the Environment Center of the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has analyzed problems of security that may arise in relation to environmental problems. One such flashpoint is the border area between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, where climate change could cause shortages in water resources shared by these countries. It is thought that disagreements over the allocation of water rights could flare into a military confrontation.

　

When the natural environment is destroyed, natural resources are depleted, laying waste to the mechanisms by which life exists on this planet. The destruction of the environment and the deterioration of the security environment have a mutually reinforcing effect, threatening humanity with compound threats that originate in both nature and human action. This problem may well be the single most significant security threat facing the world today. A fully integrated approach, covering environmental, resource-oriented and military measures, is unavoidable. The conventional role of the military, consisting of containment and intervention, cannot by itself prevent the eruption of these compound threats. What is needed today is a new role for military forces, along with measures that marshal the resources of national and international organizations to support the environment and peace.

　

Compound threats can easily be imagined at sea. If a number of countries assert dominion over a group of islands, said chain of islands cannot be included in an EEZ. If the area is home to a valuable fish stock, the disagreeing countries have no disincentive to overfish. Depletion of resources through overfishing and land-based pollution can also lead to military conflict, causing further environmental damage. If ethnic or religious tensions are added to the mix, terrorists might cause environmental damage as well. Clearly a wide range of measures by the various actors concerned is necessary to preserve the natural environment and security of the oceans. The world's navies must be tasked with their part in stabilizing the marine environment and maritime security. With the help of naval activities to preserve the peace and the environment, the cycle of degradation of development, the environment and peace can be prevented.

　

Naval forces boast excellent mobility and diplomatic capabilities and are superbly flexible organizations, able to perform a stunning variety of duties both at war and in peacetime. They should clearly be able to wield those formidable powers in the service of preventive action to ensure peace and the security of the environment. Some analysts believe that any actions short of war should be handled by police agencies. However, the protection of the oceans consists of military and diplomatic activity as well as police actions.²⁷ Many countries have established a naval police force, such as the United States Coast Guard, that is separate from the armed forces. In such countries, however, the navy is not relieved of police duties. In matters ranging from terrorism and piracy to handling of refugees, naval police and navies typically work together. Indeed, the concept of collaboration with naval police deserves careful consideration.

　

　

The materiel at the disposal of navy forces can play a powerful role in the monitoring of the marine environment. Surface vessels and submarines will need to be dispatched to gather information on ocean currents and the topography of the sea floor. To detect the presence of submarines, equipment to detect heat distribution and propagation of sound waves in the oceans will be needed; navies possess such equipment in abundance. At the same time, navies can gather information on the marine biosphere. Using opportunities for training and observation, navies can actively gather information on ocean temperatures, propagation of sound and abnormal weather and distribute it to centers of information on the marine environment and bioresources.

　

　

The preservation of peace and the environment at sea requires the recognition of a new concept in security: the "protection of the seas" in a managed maritime world. To protect the seas, the various forces deployed on the oceans must be integrated, as this is the only way to combat compound threats. Nations possess a wide variety of powers capable of action at sea, including police forces, navies, resource management agencies, environmental protection agencies, scientific and technological resources, merchant marines and diplomatic corps. These various forces must be systematically organized for the purpose of protecting the seas, providing a means of monitoring the cycle of development, environment and security.

　

　

Mahan, author of The Influence of Sea Power upon History, use the term "sea powers" to refer to all powers that countries could use at sea. This notion was closely tied with the concept of a free maritime world. In the new paradigm of the managed maritime world, "sea powers" must be defined as all powers used to manage the oceans. In this framework, the significance of naval forces embraces not only the traditional role of sea control but contribution to the protection of the seas as well.

　

International cooperation is essential for security measures to protect the seas, as compound threats transcend national borders to threaten all nations. To achieve this cooperation, a broad agreement on the positioning of naval forces must be reached among coastal nations and nations that use marine resources, as part of an integrated global or regional management regime. An approach of preventive action and international cooperation is the best way to enable sustainable use of the oceans and peaceful resolution of conflicts. This mechanism should be capable of coping with the worries that various parties may have with each other, such as fears of partitioning of the seas on the part of coastal nations, creeping jurisdiction over territorial waters, and sea-power conflicts with countries that are traditional users of marine resources.

　

From 1996 to 2000, researchers at the National Institute for Defense Studies proposed a definition of ocean peacekeeping as naval activities for the purpose of protecting marine resources and maritime security.²⁸ As a concrete example of ocean peacekeeping, the researchers proposed that naval forces be used in joint monitoring activities for he protection of the environment. These activities would be based on decision-making at the regional level regarding marine resources and the environment. The ships and airplanes supplied by each country would crisscross their own territorial waters to monitor the status of compliance on resources and the environment. For example, these forces could monitor the area of sea in question to determine which countries' fishing vessels are present, how many ships are present, when they are there, what part of the region they are in, and whether they are illegally disposing of items or polluting the waters. The forces could also be active in gathering information on the climate and blooms of red tide. After the gathered information is submitted, the competent authorities in the country in question could then take appropriate action. With the visible cooperation of each of the countries, this framework would be highly effective in combating piracy and terrorism.

　

Although the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea proposed vast areas of national jurisdiction, many countries do not possess sufficient capability to protect the resources and environment of the waters under their control. Issues such as management of fish that migrate and spawn across territorial boundaries and prevention of sea pollution scattered over wide areas cannot be handled adequately with approaches confined to each country's territorial jurisdiction. To protect the resources and environment of the oceans, the concept of security cooperation must be applied. One proposal suggests that countries that have declared an EEZ but lack the ships and airplanes necessary for ocean peacekeeping can be seconded such resources from countries that possess such materiel.

　

In 1998, which was designated the International Year of the Ocean, the Independent World Commission on the Oceans drafted a report entitled Ocean Our Future and presented it to the United Nations General Assembly.²⁹ The first chapter of this book provides an introduction to the concept of ocean peacekeeping. This concept greatly merits close and urgent consideration.

　

Strategies for security going forward must incorporate not only international relations and an estimation of military threats but also measures for the constant monitoring of the earth's environmental mechanisms.