日本財団　図書館


付録3　Drewy Shipping Consultants・Silberston
教授によるKSA報告書
(2001年4月)
Examination Procedure Concerning an Obstacle to Trade Consisting of Trade Practices Maintained by Korea Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels
Absence of Injury and Adverse Trade Effects Caused by Alleged Subsidies
THE EUROPEAN AND WORLDWIDE
SHIPBUILDING MARKET:
An Economic Analysis on the Comparative
Strengths and Weaknesses of EU and
Korean Shipyards
3 April 2001
Prepared by:
Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
Drewry House, Meridian Gate - South Quay 213 Marsh Wall, London E14 9FJ
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7538 0191
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7987 9396
and
Professor Aubrey Silberston CBE
London Economics and Imperial College, University of London
Tel: 00 32 2 230 0175
Fax: 00 32 2 230 5713
Contents
Section 1 Introduction 1-2
     
Section 2 The International Shipbuilding Market 3-12
2.1 International Seaborne Trade 3
2.2 The Sectors of International Shipping 4
2.3 The International Shipping Fleets 5
2.4 The Shipping Market Cycle and Shipbuilding 9
     
Section 3 The EU "Cost Model" 13-21
3.1 Overall Approach 13
3.2 Details of the Cost Model 15
3.3 Cost Model Assumptions and Parameters Used 16
3.4 Sampling Techniques 18
3.5 Samples Used 19
3.6 Cost Model Results 21
     
Section 4 EU and Korean Yards Operate Largely in Different Markets 22-39
4.1 EU/Korean Market Presence in Shipbuilding 22
4.11 Group 1 22
4.1.2 Group 2 24
4.1.3 Group 3 27
4.1.4 Summary 28
4.2 Shipbuilders Market Shares 29
4.2.1 The Historical Perspective 29
4.2.2 Recent Trends in Market Share 33
4.3 Value of Ships Built 35
     
Section 5 Productivity and Competitiveness 40-59
5.1 Competitiveness 40
5.2 Labour Productivity Levels 43
5.3 Labour Unit Costs 45
5.4 Korean Labour Competitiveness 47
5.5 Factors Affecting Productivity 48
5.5.1 Direct Material and Equipment Costs 48
5.5.2 Other Operating Costs 50
5.5.3 Economies of Scale 51
5.5.4 Build Time 56
5.5.5 Yard Technology 57
     
Section 6 Non-Price Competition 60-62
6.1 Introduction 60
6.2 Strong Client Relationships 61
6.3 Shorter Build Times 61
6.4 Reliable Delivery 61
6.5 Quality 61
6.6 Re-Sale Value 61
6.7 After Sales Service 62
6.8 Engineering Flexibility 62
6.9 Customer Service 62
     
Section 7 Shipbuilding Capacity & Utilisation 63-77
7.1 Measuring Shipbuilding Capacity 63
7.2 OECD Shipyard Capacity Statistics 65
7.3 Shipbuilding Capacity Changes 68
7.3.1 AWES Shipbuilding Capacity Projections 70
7.3.2 OECD CWP Capacity Projections 72
7.4. EU Capacity Restrictions 73
7.4.1 Germany 73
7.4.2 Spain 73
7.4.3 United Kingdom 74
7.5 Capacity Utilisation in Europe and Japan 75
7.6 Conclusion on Shipbuilding Capacity 76
     
Section 8 World Shipbuilding Demand 78-82
8.1. Drivers of Shipbuilding Demand 78
8.2. New Orders 79
8.3. Completions 81
8.4. Orderbook 82
     
Section 9 Impact of Asian Crisis 83-85
9.1 Exchange Rates 83
     
Section 10 Newbuilding Prices 86-91
10.1 Newbuilding Price Trends 86
10.2 Factors Affecting Newbuilding Prices 88
10.3 Information - Shipbrokers and How Shipowners Understand the Market 89
10.4 Role of Ship Financiers 90
     
Section 11 Government Support to National Shipbuilding Industries 92-98
11.1 Individual Country Support 92
11.1.1 Italy 93
11.1.2 Germany 93
11.1.3 Spain 94
11.1.4 Greece 96
11.1.5 Japan 97
11.1.6 United Kingdom 97
11.2 Shipyards Which Combine Military and Commercial Work 98
     
Annexes   99-118
Annex 1 Completions by Year 100
Annex 2 World Orderbook 1 January 2001 101
Annex 3 World Shipbuilding Statistics 1995-2000 102
Annex 4 The Plate Mill Sector in South Korea 103-111
Annex 5 Recent Changes in European and Japanese Shipbuilding Capacity 112-116
Annex 6 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. 117
Annex 7 Professor Aubrey Silberston CBE 118
     
Tables    
     
Table 2.1 Main Commercial Fleets - Jan 1st2001 4
Table 5.1 Average Shipyard Productivity 43
Table 5.2 Indexed Average Shipyard Productivity 44
Table 5.3 Indicative Labour Costs 46
Table 5.4 Indexed Labour Costs 47
Table 5.5 Prices Paid for Steel Plate 49
Table 5.6 Main EU Merchant Shipbuilding Yards Since 1997 53-54
Table 5.7 Illustrative Build-Times 57
Table 7.1 OECD Shipbuilding Capacity 65
Table 7.2 OECD Shipbuilding Capacity and Output 67
Table 7.3 Key Factors Affecting Shipbuilding Capacity 68
Table 7.4 Capacity Projection reported to OECD CWP on Shipbuilding 72
     
Figures    
     
Figure 2.1 International Seaborne Trade 4
Figure 2.2 Shipping Market Cycles 4
Figure 2.3 Freight Market Rates 4
Figure 4.1 Group I Completions by CGT 23
Figure 4.2 Group I New Orders by CGT 23
Figure 4.3 Group 2 Completions: 1996-99 by CGT 24
Figure 4.4 Group 2 New Orders: 1996-99 CGT 25
Figure 4.5 Group 3 Completions: 1996-99 CGT 27
Figure 4.6 Group 3 New Orders: 1996-99 CGT 28
Figure 4.7 Historical Completions by Country - 1954-73 30
Figure 4.8 Market Share of New Orders by GT 34
Figure 4.9 Market Share of Completions by GT 34
Figure 4.10 Market Share of Orderbook by GT 35
Figure 4.1.1 Completions by Value 36-37
Figure 4.12 New orders by Value 38-39
Figure 5.1 Gross Shipyard Productivity 44
Figure 5.2 Korean Labour Costs 46
Figure 5.3. Unit Labour Costs 47
Figure 5.4 Asian Shipyard Clustering 52
Figure 8.1 New Orders 80
Figure 8.2 Completions 80
Figure 8.3 Completions by Year 81
Figure 8.4 Orderbook 82
Figure 9.1 South Korean Won vs US Dollar 84
Figure 9.2 Newbuilding Prices in Korean Won and US$ 85
Figure 1O.1 Newbuilding Prices 87








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