Firstly, unsolved disputes between the countries in East Asia relating to territorial issues or the other differences are still one of the most dangerous spots that may lead to clashes. Of course, we have witnessed great progress already in solving these disputes. For example, even countries involving disputes over islands in the South China Sea area have moved toward confidence-building and preparing a "code of conduct" aimed at avoiding direct conflicts. However, the settlement of territorial disputes is the most complex and difficult of these, which requires both time and wisdom among the parties involved.
Secondly, domestic conflicts due to political change, or ethnic or religious clashes are and will be the major factors of instability, and not just internally, but also regionally since they may spill over into other countries. In order to solve domestic conflicts, it has to rely on the internal efforts of countries though this does not mean that the regional as well as the international community will totally standby. However, outside enforcement, especially military intervention, usually creates more violence and lasting instability. East Timor is often taken as an example for the role of outside intervention. But is necessary to remember that it is a very special case with a unique historical legacy.
Thirdly, the Cold War mentality is still at work, which in fact creates new mistrust and even confrontation. The US insists its strategy for keeping a regional order through old military alliances or forming new military partners against the identified enemy or enemies. This makes the region divided. The region cannot rely mainly on the US military presence and alliance for its security. Instead, it has to rely on the real cooperation among the countries in the region. East Asian cooperation is already on the way with the progress of "ASEAN plus three." There are now leaders' summit, meetings for economic ministers and foreign ministers, and it is beneficial if regular defense ministers' meetings can be held since this will be very constructive for building trust and institutional arrangements. Concerning the future trends, an East Asian security cooperative mechanism is both necessary and possible.
China is an important factor in forming a regional security architecture. China's growing strength and influence is considered by some to be a challenge or even a threat. Many countries are not sure or even worry about China's role in the future. The US worries that China's rise may break the present order and undermine its domination. Japan's concern is that a strong China may take revenge because of historical reasons; and some ASEAN countries worry that a powerful China may use its muscle to control the South China Sea. In fact, the strengthening of the US-Japan security alliance and the theater missile defense (TMD) program both have the idea of restraining or containing China's growing power in the background.
How to make the region stable and peaceful? Generally, the countries in the region should rely on their own efforts: more bilateral efforts in reducing tension and preventing conflicts; improving domestic governance through political and social reforms; and promoting regional cooperation and community building. East Asian countries have to rely mainly on their own efforts to ensure East Asian security and peace, rather than relying too much on the US role.
