Another important aspect is integrated development. In the CBD we have to integrate that mass transit system with commercial and business facilities to provide more direct access. For corridor areas, we also need integrated development around stations and mode interchange facility areas. And we have to also enforce good land use control, especially around station areas. In suburban areas, public transport can be integrated with the development of new towns or industrial estates. And that is broad direction of how we think of urban transport development in HCMC area.
All proposed lines of the mass transit cover the existing and future urban areas of the HCMC.
So mass transit is necessary to improve the situation in major corridors and CBD areas as the urban area is expanding. But in the future we have to accommodate 2-3 million people in suburban areas. But these people have to come to the CBD, either for office, shopping, working and other purposes. Definitely, traffic demand in not only CBD, but also along major corridors will increase sharply. This totals about 206km of the mass transit routes, and may require about 4.1 billion of funds to construct.
Based on the experience of Manila, Hong Kong, or Singapore, 1km of rail mass transit routes can carry 10,000 to 30,000 people. So that means if we assume that with this 206km of the rail mass transit, it can carry about 3-4million passenger/day, which is more or less 30% of the future urban transport demand of the HCMC. It was estimated that 4.1 billion would be required to construct this 206km, but according to our calculation this amount of money should not be enough, and instead it would require about USD 10 billion.
Of the total network, these are priority routes, which have been identified in various studies. One is a German study, conducted in 1997, and one is MVA study. At any rate, the demand is the key area of the existing CBD area. The existing Vietnam railway line can play also significant roles, but unless this inter city route is very well integrated with the intra-urban network, it cannot meet the urban transport demand effectively. So what are the constraints and what are the opportunities?
One of the serious constraints in developing the mass transit in many cities is the land acquisition and resettlement, since most of the routes has to be constructed in built-up areas, especially station and depot areas. This is a very big social problem, and we have to be prepared for that kind of situation. The second constraint is the very large investment cost, in terms of not only construction. Even after the construction of the system, it requires for much money. So how we establish a good funding mechanism is always a constraint in developing the mass transit.
For HCMC, there is a potential constraint, namely, how we will encourage the modal shift, from motorcycles and other transport modes to mass transit. Because, as far as we can see, motorcycles are very convenient, and it is very difficult for the people to abandon the motorcycles and then shift to public transport, unless that public transport is very attractive and can provide much better services than the motorcycles. This is an issue that we will have to look into in the period of planning.
