At this point NSR seafarers cannot reliably obtain sufficient data to select an optimum route. The near future for remote sensing technology looks bright. Since this source of data should be calibrated and validated by sea-truth data, it is hoped that international agreement can be reached to ensure that these measurements are diligently carried out in international frameworks. The results of these observations will be useful not only for NSR shipping, but for oceanographical researches and studies in preservation of the earth environment on a global scale as well.
GIS is another technology with emerging promise. Although presently GIS relies on past statistical data, GIS in future should grow up to a real dynamic atlas, on which meteorological and ice data in real time or in next-to-real time could easily be accessed, offering accurate and reliable forecasting and a variety of information for effective decision-making.
(2) Biological environment
The ecosystem of marine life in the Arctic Ocean is one of the most badly neglected areas of surveying and research. Vast stretches of ocean await observation and surveying. Because of the tough natural environment in these areas, surveying is extremely expensive and time-consuming, making survey work in these areas highly inefficient.
Surveys of ecosystems, including food chains, involve a large time component. They must include both intensive (local) and extensive study in both time and space and create organic links among these various types of data. Unfortunately research on such an ambitious scale is beyond the capability of INSROP. To save time and cost, INSROP carefully selected certain species that can serve as indices for their ecosystem, then studied the impact on those species of all aspects of NSR shipping under various restrictions, relying on documentary evidence regarding noise, air pollution and marine pollution. The implications of this research for NSR shipping were enormous. If NSR shipping were found to have a strong impact on Arctic ecosystems, such shipping would have to be subjected to numerous restrictions. In some cases new sanctuaries would have to be added to existing ones; in others shipping would have to be prohibited entirely. Fortunately, the results of INSROP's survey supported the conclusion that NSR shipping, including noise, had almost no effect on ecosystems. In many cases, however, more long-term study is needed, to determine the effects of such factors as trace amounts of pollution from passing ships or the effect of shipping on breeding patterns. Further extensive studies are vital to confirm the environmental safety of NSR operation.
The INSROP environmental study did not have time to address issues of the environmental value of the NSR, using valuation methods such as revealed preference or stated preference. Problems of value can be assessed in terms of compensation payable in the event of damage to the biological environment or in terms of the impact of such damage on the insurance premiums for NSR vessels. These issues of assessment of value will have to be addressed in the near future, whether by the Russian government or through international collaboration.
Data on ecosystems, including population figures for indigenous peoples and natural environmental data, were compiled in the INSROP GIS. INSROP GIS will be expected to play a valuable role in much wider fields in the near future.
The natural conditions of the Arctic Ocean are undergoing profound year-on-year changes. Assuming that the ships that ply its waters satisfy the stipulated specifications for NSR vessels, it should take at least several decades of monitoring to determine the effect of the opening of the NSR on the natural environment.
