The opening of the NSR is bound to be especially disruptive to those indigenous peoples who make a living by fishing. As ships continue to pass through coastal waters, their economic influence will simultaneously stimulate industry in remote places, as facilities for extracting and shipping mineral resources are erected. This activity might inevitably disturb the traditional ways of life of indigenous peoples in these regions.
(2) Taxation and tariff structure
Russia's tax system and methods of tax collection and the people's consciousness and attitudes toward taxes are beyond the comprehension of Western observers. The imposition of taxes and tariffs, including taxes and tariffs on foreign investment and foreign assets, has been extremely fluid, even arbitrary.
Russia's policy of environmental protection in the NSR includes protective legislation in the form of environmental taxes, in accordance with current global trends. The legislation reflects the theoretical influences of the "precautionary principle," espoused in the 5th Environmental Action Plan of the EU's Joint Policy on the Economy (1993), "polluter pays principle," and the "partnership principle." Persons operating in the NSR are expected to have a sort of compulsory insurance to cover third party liability arising out of environmental pollution. In practice, however, the way in which damages for compensation of large-scale pollution incidents are paid is unclear, partly because the evaluation of environmental value and valuation methods are incomplete. Current socioeconomic data on Russia are of little use in forecasting the viability of the NSR, since shipping volumes ultimately depend directly on the state of the economy. Favorable political judgments and offers of financial incentives to lure cargo transports to the NSR, even when carried out, are usually short-term in effect. No single factor will be more pivotal to the future of NSR shipping than a recovery in the Russian economy. In any event, investment by both shipping companies and operators will be needed, and an accurate assessment of economic trends in Russia is essential to focus NSR investment appropriately. Since energy and mineral resources are the most likely candidates for cargo in NSR shipping, trends in resource development rights and legislation regarding the inflow of foreign capital for such development will be watched closely. Other important factors include increase/decrease in the Russian population in the autonomous states and autonomous districts along the NSR coast, as these trends will play a role in the development of infrastructure and modes of transportation; and changes among the indigenous inhabitants in the attitudes toward development of this nature.
Russia's legal framework, administrative agencies, tax system, environmental protection policies and tariffs are constantly being overturned. Fortunately, though the short-term application of laws affecting the NSR is buffeted by endlessly shifting political winds, the long-term outlook is overwhelmingly positive. This is why any discussion of the legal situation in Russia that is fixated on the status quo of the moment is likely to lead to erroneous conclusions.
One feature of the Russian political and legal landscape that must be monitored closely is public and government opinion in the patchwork of autonomous states [and other local governments] along the NSR coast. These local governments are generally strapped for funding, and opinion on development is divided. Some local authorities have specific expectations for the opening of the NSR and the effects it will bring. Others are determined rather to defend the traditional ways of life of indigenous peoples and see no clear, immediate benefits from NSR shipping. Where powers is rapidly devolved from the center to local governments, boosters of the NSR project will find themselves involved in seeking consensus among an assortment of regional and local authorities, which might create a convoluted and time-consuming negotiation process.
