Optimum operation
In the foregoing simulation the Suez Canal route was selected as the most economical for ships leaving port from February to May. In the future, however, as an abundance of satellite data becomes available, it should be possible to obtain an accurate information on ice conditions before entering the NSR. In effect, this means that the results of forecasts can be used reliably to decide when to switch between the Suez Canal route and the NSR, so that the optimum route can be selected in any voyage. Under these conditions for ice information, the study was carried out to examine how far freight rates could be reduced using the 50BC. Once again the ice index was used to determine when to switch between routes; when the ice index fell below -50,000, the Suez Canal route would be selected. Data were obtained from the decade 1980-1989, the results of which are shown in Table 4.4-14. Freight rates were set in the range of US$20.30-$21.60/t. To provide an example of optimum switching operation, the results for 1987 appear in Table 4.4-15. In this scenario, the Suez Canal route was selected once and the NSR 9.3 times, for a total of 10.3 voyages. Average ship speed through the NSR was 7.8-13.7 knots. Freight rates for summer navigation alone were calculated at approximately $18.10/t. Therefore, summer freight rates for icebreaking bulk carriers in the NSR is roughly equal to that of conventional handy-size bulk carriers, while the year-round NSR operation is somewhat more expensive. These results demonstrate that the icebreaking bulk carriers could be competitive to the conventional handy-size bulk carriers. For a breakdown of various costs for a conventional 50,000DWT bulk carrier in open-water operation, please see Appendix 5-2.
