Simulation results
Discussions on NSR fees (transit fees)
NSR transit fees are a major component of total operational cost. When high transit fees are applied, the NSR cannot compete successfully with the route via the Suez Canal. A MVS was therefore run to find out what an appropriate level of transit fees would be, before conducting a series of simulations. Through the comparison of the operational costs between the NSR and the route via the Suez Canal, it was assumed that the NSR dues should possess the primary requisite that the NSR operation was economically superior to the Suez one for half a year with the 40BC in service. Reduction of 26% (Table 4.4-7) from the extrapolated fee for large ships (Table 4.4-6) was found to satisfy this requirement. The following simulation was conducted on the basis of this 26% reduction in NSR transit fees.
Results by transit route (northerly route, southerly route) (MVS)
The 40BC and 50BC with deep drafts are designed for the northerly route while the 25BC with a shallow draft is aimed primarily at the shallower southerly route. MVS was carried out using data on ice conditions from 1957 to 1990. As one example, Table 4.4-8 indicates the number of voyage-days in each month, using data in 1979 and 1980. Because the ice index provides a probability distribution for ship speeds, the number of running days at sea is also obtained in a form of distribution, though the range of variance is narrow. The table indicates the average values as well as the 1%min. and 1%max. The notations, 1%min. and 1%max. in the figures mean the value under which the probability of occurrence at 1% and the value corresponding to the probability at 99%, respectively. Average voyage- days by month for the 25BC, 40BC and 50BC and their breakdowns are shown in Figure 4.4-9. For the 40BC, the longest voyage occurred in March, at 44.1 days (26.8 days in the NSR); the shortest voyage was 30.7 days, in September (15.7 days in the NSR).
