2. Estimation of Possible CO2 Reduction, and Importance of "System Energy" Technology
For the preparation for the above-described "Kyoto Convention on Prevention of Global Warming", the Environment Agency established the "Working Group for Technical Evaluation of Countermeasures for Global Warming" in July, 1995, in order to specifically calculate the estimation of the reduction in CO2 emission through the practical technology. The working group was chaired by the author, and, in February, 1997, the estimation in 2010 was summarized. Table 1 is the summary of the estimation of the possible reduction in 2010 estimated in this Working Group expressed by the contribution ratio to the total estimation of the possible reduction by the individual and specific technology. In the estimation, the object was only CO2 among various greenhouse gases. The technologies were limited to realistic ones which seem practicable within these 10 years, taking into consideration the limits including the cost, the time and the convenience. Expert groups were established by the department to implement the works, the possible technologies were listed up through the hearings in the related industries, and quantitatively evaluated at the Working Group. At the same time, the "survey on the possibility of introducing the technologies of the global warming countermeasures" was carried out for the factories and plants having boilers and motors on the specified scale or above, and municipal refuse incinerators all in Japan through the cooperation of the prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. The total estimation of the possible reduction in 2010 calculated based on these results is different from the estimated popularity of individual technologies; however, the estimation is about 20% of the level in 1990 even when the popularity ratio is estimated to be extremely lower, and it seems technologically possible to realize a fairly large total reduction if a remarkable effort is paid with firm belief.
The figure of the possible reduction from the level in 1990 can not be estimated uniquely since it is dependent on the estimated growth of the energy demand until 2010; however, it is technologically practicable if efforts are paid, bringing us a bright and rosy future. This is far superior to the proposals difficult in quantitative estimation such as the conversion of the life style and the thorough energy-saving consciousness.
The contribution ratio to the total CO2 estimated to be possibly reduced is, roughly speaking, 5:3:1:1 in the sections of the energy conversion, the industry, the household and commercial and the transportation as illustrated in Table 1, and the contribution ratio of the effort by the energy conversion sector is the maximum, occupying about one half. The energy conversion sector means the technologies mostly on the power generation. This table includes no nuclear reactor repowering or household micro cogeneration, and if they are included, the contribution ratio of the "system energy" technology directly connected to the high efficiency of the power generation system including the combined cycle, the repowering, the gas turbine combined refuse power generation, and the cogeneration, occupies at least 30%, demonstrating an extremely large effect. The "system energy" technology is the term proposed by the author as the generic term for the technology in which the established existing basic technologies such as the piston engine, the gas turbine and the steam turbine are systematically combined following the principle of the thermodynamics and the heat is used completely from the high temperature to the low temperature, but has not officially recognized by the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, etc. However, for the technology contributing to suppression of the global warming, this technology is most effective as described above, unnecessary for any new technolgical development, and easily practicable, and the importance of the meaning of this term, and its concept is clear. The principle of the "system energy" technology will be described in the next paragraph a little in detail.
3. Principle of "System Energy" Technology
Sadi Carnot (1796-1832), who died young when he was 37 years old because of cholera, is worshipped as the founder of thermodynamics, and he wrote only one paper in 1824. There is a phrase in this paper "The heat transport from the high temperature to the low temperature without generation of the power must be regarded as the net loss.", in which his genius is fully expressed. The "heat specialists" whose business is to sell the heat, have never paid their attention to this point in these 170 years. The gas burner is ignited to make hot water for a bath tub, and the petroleum fan heater is ignited to have space heating. The "high-temperature heat" of at least 1500℃ is generated at the flame of the burner or the heater; however, they have felt no wonder even when hot water of 46℃ is made for the bath tub, and the space heating at 25℃ is made while using this high-temperature heat as it is. They have taken it for granted that the temperature of the heat is dropped without generating any power.
Anyone can think that dams are constructed high altitude in the mountains, hydro-power stations such as Kurobe No.4 and Kurobe No.3 are successively established from the higher part along the river while water flows down to the sea level, and the water head is exhausted thereby.
