Spearheaded by Heisenberg's Quantum Theory, postulating that the motion of individual atoms is unpredictable, it was further elaborated by Prigogine, who showed how complex models, with their ever more intricate chains of bifurcation of options and possibilities, will eventually induce chaos, out of which, at a still later phase, a new order may arise.
Generalized, the "new science paradigm" tells us that the accumulation of more and more data may generate uncertainty rather than certainty and that the behaviour of complex systems cannot be predicted through linear projection but is inherently unpredictable.
Since coastal areas are highly complex systems, where land and sea and atmosphere, living resources and their physical and chemical and meteorological environment, human activities and natural developments, all interact, uncertainty is "structural." It is therefore meaningless for the coastal manager to postpone decisions and remedial action until the day when all data are accumulated to "prove" a certain development, for this day will never dawn. The coastal manager has therefore to act on the basis of the precautionary principle. In other words he/she has to take decisions and act in the absence of scientific certainty.
This, of course, entails a slew of new problems, the biggest of which is the extreme variability of interpretations of the concept. A recent article published by Sience1 mentions 14 different interpretations given in various Treaties and Declarations, ranging from the strictest, which would prevent the adoption of any new technology, to the loosest which call for decisions in the absence of any scientific evidence at all: A 1990 declaration on the protection of the North Sea calls for action to be taken even if there is "no scientific evidence to prove a causal link between emissions of wastes into ocean waters and effects."
In any case, Uncertainty and the precautionary principle change the nature of decision-making. In a sense, this signifies a return to "commonsense;" it also suggests listening to the voices of ancient and indigenous cultures and people who knew about conservation and sustainability of natural resources and the environment long before we began to study them with our advanced scientific means.
Risk
Uncertainty begets risk, and the greater the uncertainty, the greater the risk. Risk can be reduced by assessments and calculations. It also can be reduced by cooperation. Competition, inherent in our present economic system, increases risk. Risk management should become an integral part of integrated coastal management. While environmental impact assessment -- already recognized as an essential component of integrated coastal and ocean management -- addresses risks to the environment, risk management and risk reduction, including legislation, building codes as well as community based training for disaster preparedness and mitigation, enhancement of insurability and the introduction of community-based mutual mini-insurance schemes, addresses the reduction of human suffering.
1SCIENCE,, Vol. 288 No. 5468, 12 May 2000
