The view of future trade and container operations in the west coast of North America and East Asia
Japan is fortunate since Asian ports are expected to grow in the future. Distances are short and intra-Asia trade will increase with China's entry into the WTO. Trade between North America and East Asian countries with China's expanding economy will continue to grow especially in the field of imports. Fierce competition, cost reduction, and increasing numbers of large-size container vessels will have a major impact on the way container terminals are being operated. As a result, the concentration on a fewer calling ports will be accelerated and the role of hub ports in these areas will become more important. Especially, in China, where many ports are scattered, shipping carriers with mega-ships reduce their number of calling ports.93
In the U.S., the future of trade in container operations along the West Coast of North America and East Asia is viewed to be positive. The vast majority of cargo transiting the Port of Seattle is Asian cargo - more than 90 percent. A recent study by the Washington Public Ports Association has shown the 20-year growth of container volumes to be in the 3 - 5 percent annual growth range. Recent estimates in Southern California have shown a larger annual percentage increase in Asia Pacific trade.94
U.S., Canadian, and Mexican ports (especially container ports) and their regions are counting on large future volumes of Asian trade. China trade prospects are enticing and, hopefully the Japan-U.S.interchange will be strong. The Asia to U.S. east coast via the Suez is not likely to show much growth whereas the ocean-rail intermodal route between East Asia and Eastern U.S. and Canada will be strong unless U.S. Pacific Coast ports encounter big labor, productivity, and congestion problems. Vancouver, B.C. will continue to rise as a container port. Canadian railroads are competitive, especially with the new BNSF/Canadian National merger.95
Future U.S. West Coast port load centers
Ports with deep draft berths and good hinterland connections such as Los Angeles-Long Beach and Seattle-Tacoma with an advantage in railroad transportation to the East Coast or inland regions will remain primarily as they are today. Los Angeles and Long Beach will continue to be the primary load center with Seattle and Tacoma as the second major load center. Oakland will continue to be the third load center. It is likely that Vancouver, Canada will continue to grow and become a fourth load center.96
Future East Asian load center
It should be safe to say that the combination of geographical location, efficient and cost effective operations will determine which Asian ports will be load centers. It should also be safe to say that much of the growth will be in the China market and therefore load centers will develop to serve the large Chinese market in addition to Hong Kong and existing major mainland container ports.97
Future East Asian Hub Port
Kaohsiung, Ningbo, Pusan, Yantian, and Hong Kong are all likely candidates. Kahosiung has good reputation and good facilities as well as Pusan. Hong Kong is also working hard to continue its role, however Yantian Port in the South Pearl River Delta may take over that role in the future. It is being constructed on the mainland as an international transshipment deep-water port with railroad and air-express services to provide a true intermodal logistics facility.
