F. Session IV: Monsoon Dynamics
Monsoon Research in Europe
Alan O'Neill,
Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, UK
The EU funded research programme, 'Studies of the Hydrology, Influence and Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (SHIVA)', documented the observed behaviour of the monsoon, improved its simulation in climate models, and assessed monsoon predictability. SHIVA ended in February 1999, and the Final Report has now been published by the European Commission. Whilst SHIVA answered many questions, many more remained unanswered. The need to continually improve the basic simulation of the monsoon is very evident. The potential for coupled ocean-atmosphere processes to influence monsoon variability on timescales from days to decades has become increasingly apparent. The monsoon arises from land-sea contrasts and it is clear that land surface processes have a key role to play. The goal of providing skillful seasonal forecasts for the monsoon still eludes us. We do not yet have a clear idea of how predictable the system is likely to be, or how much the apparently chaotic behaviour of the intraseasonal variability may limit that predictability.
Building on SHIVA, a new interdisciplinerary research project has been funded by the EU entitled 'Predictability and variability of monsoons, and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate change (PROMISE)'. The budget is 1.6M Euros over 3 years. PROMISE aims to address two key issues for monsoon-affected countries:
(i) The potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits that would accrue in terms of the management of water resources and agriculture.
