Review
of INSROP discussion paper WP8
"Simulation Based on Year Round and Seasonal Operation Scenarios"
by K. Kamesaki, S. Kishi, Y. Yamauchi, NKK
by Alfred Tunik
ABS, 2 WTC, 106th Floor New York NY 10048 USA
February 1999
The discussion paper is the summary report of simulating ship navigation along NSR. It incorporates partial reports of a coordinated 5-year work of seven WPs focused on specific aspects of dada processing, NSR ship design, transit simulations and cost analysis. This fundamental multi-discipline study is to justify the feasibility of NSR cargo transit and to demonstrate the conditions under which the NSR operation can be economically beneficial. The broad multi-discipline character of this report calls for a multi-discipline review of the summary - a task which may exceed the scope of expertise of this reviewr. As a results, some aspects of the report are not reviewed to a level they deserve.
The study is marked by high value and quality which are due to a broad range of factors analyzed, comprehensive data acquisition and processing, and the depth of analytical studies performed on each topic with random simulations, where applicable, of the processes modelled. The authors (both of the WP8 summary and relevant componet WP's) should also be credited for recognizing and attempting to account the fact that ships in reality tend to follow a seemingly easier path when navigating in relatively severe ice conditions. And this study is one of the few recent studies where an attemt is made to quantify this tendency. The authors should also be complemented for attempting to quantify incertain but practically important operational mode -ship transit motion under compression by ice fields.
There are some weaknesses in the report which do not necessarily diminish its value but rather point out to the areas for further improvement. Namely：
1. Fig.2.3.1. presents the specter of exported cargo but does not even mention timber - one of the main export commodity transported almost entirely through northern ports. The reviewer does not have timber export data in tons or currency. However, by the number of ships and by tonnage, timber carriers constitue one of the largest group in the Russian commercial fleet, and market demand for new building of this ship type is not declining and they are being built in Russian shipyards inspite of their current economic hardships.
2. Table 2.4. Open water speed of the ARKTIKA is about 21 knots, not 10.7 - a misprint.
3. Section 2.5, Table 2.5.5 is poorly presented and is hardly understandable without explanations. Relationship between ice regime's numeras on the bottom paragraph on page 2-24and this table is unclear.
4. Section 2.6. The five different types of ice conditions are considered in 2.6.1 in simulating the transit ship speed. Of these, level ice is unlikely to occur in a considerable amount and channel ice (understood here as re-frozen channe1) is quite rightly excluded from this simulation. Of the two remaining ice types, pack ice is treated simply as the level ice but with a lower probability of occurance and ridged ice is treated as a number of individual ridges situated perpendicular to the heading. As a result, the simulation is too simplified being reduced to open water, level ice, and perpendicular ridges These ice types should be added by at least two more very important types (1)broken ice floes and (2)narrow leads or fractures, and a distinction should also be made for simulating ship transit behind icebreaker. The simulation should also take a due account for the time wasted when the ship is stuck in ice under compression.
