The annual serial voyage simulation between Yokohama and Hamburg was performed.
The high latitude transit route (N-route), 40BC and 50BC are combined. The switching between the NSR and the SUEZ route was considered in the designated month in order to simplify the calculation. For selecting the route, the cumulative ice index in each month during the periods of ten years (from 1980 through 1989) was calculated. Then, it was compared to the critical values of the cumulative ice index (the case of 40BC is -26000, 50BC is -50000). The cumulative ice indices for 40BC and 50 BC are shown in Table 4.2.1 and 4.2.2 respectively. The values in tables are identical, however, the shaded columns in both Tables are different and indicate the portions where the ice index is lower than the critical value of each ship. That is, the NSR has disadvantage to the Suez route in terms of the freight cost in that month and year.
Table 4.2.1 Integrating ice index for 40BC
Table 4.2.2 Integrating ice index for 50BC
There is difference between 40BC and 50BC. For 40BC, when the voyage starts between February through May, the selection for the SUEZ route is relatively superior in terms of the freight cost. For 50BC, the selection for the NSR is relatively superior for all the year round. To evaluate voyage cost in the same condition, it is assumed that both ships go through the Suez route if a voyage begins between February through May. The year of 1960, 1970, and 1980 were simulated. Table 4.2.3 and 4.2.4 show the results of 40BC and 50BC in 1980 as examples.