4.1.3 Simulation for regional route operation
The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the features of the NSR regional operation for cargo flows between Russia and Far Eastern or between Russia and Europe. Two voyage routes, which are merged to the coastal transit route (S-route), are assumed in the simulation.
One is the regional east route (E-route) between Tiksi and Yokohama, and another route is the regional west route (W-route) between Dikson and Hamburg. A series of calculations by MVS was executed. 25,000 DWT type bulk/container (25BC) is employed as the cargo ship for the simulation. The icebreaker tariff rate cut by 26% was used, and the cost parameters in chapter 2.3 are adopted.
The results for 1980 are picked up as a representative example' Figures 4.1.21 to 4.1.23 show the voyage days, the escort days and the voyage cost components respectively for the regional east route. Figures 4.1.24 to 4.1.26 indicate the same for the west regional route.
Table 4.1.11 and Figure 4.1.27 show the monthly tendency of the voyage-days at the entire route, the voyage-days at the NSR part and the escort-days at the NSR part for the regional east route. Table 4.1.12 and Figure 4.1.28 are the results for the regional west route. These statistical values refer to the simulation results from 1957 to 1990. The obvious difference of the escort ratio is found between E-route and W-route. The escort-days in the NSR part ranges from 1 to 11 days when E-route is used. The average ratio throughout the year is approximately 40%, but it goes up to more than60% from February to April. On the other hand, in W-route, it needs maximum 2 days of the escort. The percentage of the independent voyage at the NSR part is more than 80%, and especially the escort is not necessary from July to January. It implies that the eastern NSR is harsher than the western NSR.
Figure 4.1.29 and 4.1.30 show the monthly tendency of the average navigation speed by Sea area. In E-route, the trend in the Chukchi Sea is appeared almost same as the East Siberian Sea. The average speed in the winter season from January to April varies from 4 to 6 knots, and even in the summer Season, it doesn't exceed 12 knots. On the whole, the average speed at the Laptev Sea is approximately 2 knots higher than one at the other areas. On the other hand, the speed changes smoothly in the year in W-route. This is mainly attributed to the ice condition, since the escort ratio is very low.
Table 4.1.13, 4.1.14 and Figure 4.1.31, 4.1.32 show the monthly trend of the cost components. The voyage costs at the regional east route ranges from $700,000 to $900,000.
Those for the regional west route range between $460,000 and $660,000. The distance of E-route and W-route is 4,020NM and 2,397NM respectively. The reason for the cost deference is attributed to the deference of distances. However the icebreaker fee of the both routes is almost same except for the summer season at W-route, because the flat rate is adopted. The actual escort-days is not reflected in this cost factor.
