4.1 Evaluation of Monthly Voyage Simulation
4.1.1 Sensitivity Analysis on Icebreaker Tariff
The profitability of the NSR operation must meet or exceed that of the Suez route in order to use the NSR commercially. The icebreaker tariff is considered as the most significant factor among the cost parameters, although it is not rigorously regulated and the final fee will be decided after the negotiation with MSCO (Murmansk Shipping Company) that is operating the NSR icebreaker fleet. The icebreaker tariff rates in the cost table are extrapolated value from the tariff rate published. Before proceeding the cost simulation, the icebreaker tariff is discussed to set reasonable one to be used throughout the simulation.
It is assumed that the NSR has to keep advantage to the Suez route for at least 6 months in terms of the operation cost as rationale. Thus, it is studied whether the extrapolated icebreaker tariff is suitable to fulfill these premises, and how low the tariff should be set if it is unfeasible. The sensitivity analysis for icebreaker tariff was performed applying MVS(the monthly voyage simulation) and it proved that the tariff should be cut by 26% as shown in Table 4.1.1.
The voyage costs for 40,000 DWT type bu1k/container (40BC) that is calculated by using these two different tariff rates are shown in Table 4.1.2 and 4.1.3. In these cases, the freight costs are calculated by dividing one voyage cost by cargo tonnage in Table 2.4.
The ship route is set as high latitude transit route (N-route). The calculation results for 25,000 DWT type bulk/container (25BC) and 50,000 DWT type bulker (50BC) were shown in Appendix C. The freight cost for the ship route via the Suez Canal is also shown below the Tables. Also the calculation conditions for the Suez route are indicated the Appendix C.
The mean values of environment data from 1957 through 1990 (except 1961,1963 and 1972)are used for the calculation. As Table 4.1.2, Table C.1 and Table C.3 show, the result using the extrapolated tariff rate indicates that the average freight cost for a year is higher than that of Suez route and the freight cost of the NSR is lower during the period of six or four months. If using the tariff cut by 26%, the average freight cost becomes lower or nearly equal as indicated in Table 4.1.3, Table C.2 and Table C.4. Setting more than 30% off value would be unrealistic and unfeasible. Thus, the tariffs of 26% off value are used throughout the simulation.