Forty voyages were assumed in the analysis. The report probability for sinking is one case out of 300000 voyages, and the accidental pollution seems to be quite low.
Following the study in Phase l, The followings are identified as VECs (valued ecosystem components) ;
・Benthic invertebrates
・Marine estuaries and anadromous fish
・Plant and animal life in polynyas
・Seabirds
・Marine wildfowl
・Waders in resting and feeding areas
・Polar bear
・Walrus
・Bearded seal
・Ringed seal
・Ringed seal
・White whale
・Gray whale
・Bowhead whale
・Protected areas
56 VECs (valued ecosystem components) are detailed from above categories to implement the environmental impact assessment. The impact hypotheses with four categories (A B, C, D) are assigned to 56VECs. The model scenario does not provide oil spill and waste dumping, the 22 hypotheses are rejected. Thus, due to shortness of duration and small intensity impacts on benthos, ichthyofauna and life activity in polynyas are quantitatively minor and impacts on sea birds and mammals would be disturbance. Analysis and adaptation of environmental impact scenarios have identified some meaningful hypotheses classed as Category C that proves the requirement for further studies and observations for final verification. The impact assessment was performed against two operational conditions. The report concluded that the preliminary impact assessment obtained for the NSR area gives ground for conclusion of minor negative impact from the assessed activities in case of observation of conventional practice and due account for the features characteristics for the specific areas. Also the report recommended that the first step for proper environmental damage assessment shall be the arrangement of ecological monitoring in most vulnerable points or sites along the NSR including protected territories. The report does not discuss the year round transit scenarios implemented in this simulation, however the environmental impact may be low as far as the applicable regulations to the NSR are kept. In this simulation, the cost parameters affected by the environmental assessment are not identified as well as the legal part.
