2.3 Cost tables and cargo requirements
WP3 is responsible for gathering cost data necessary for the cost estimation and performing cargo analysis. WP3 report for cost table portion did not reach WP8 in time, and WP8 asked NYK Line to develop ship operation cost tables capturing recent trends. The backgrounds and assumptions to derive the cost tables are described in this chapter and the current and future cargo flow studied in WP3 is briefly summarized.
2.3.1 Cargo requirernent
Three types of ships, 25,000DWT type bulk/container(25BC), 40,000DWT type bulk/container(40BC), and also 50,000DWT type bulker (50BC), are used for this simulation.
The details of ships are explained in chapter 2.4.
The kind of cargo should be assumed based on the respective cargo flow of a ship route, since it originally varies with either transit or regional route. WP3 has been investigating the recent cargo flows between Arctic regions of Russia and Far East or Asian-Pacific region.
The results indicate that Russia exports a lot of ferrous metal and chemical/mineral fertilizers. They also predict the increment of the machinery and equipment exports from Russia in the future. Figure 2.3.1 is referred to“The structure of Russian export cargo flow in 1996” from WP3 discussion paper (Ivanov et al. 1998).
On the other hand, the prediction of potential cargo flows through the NSR between Pacific Asia and Europe was explained in “Northern Sea Route Reconnaissance Report (US Army Corps of Engineers, 1995)”. Figure 2.3.2 summarizes the prediction of the cargo flows from Pacific Asia to Europe from the report, and Figure 2.3.3 summarizes the one from Europe to Pacific Asia. Their prediction was assumed for 60 day navigation in the NSR. It also predicts that the amount of the cargo flows by a container cargo and bulk cargo would be increased enormously.
Accurate prediction is not easy hence, in reality the kind of cargo and the cargo flows in sea trade depend on the type of ship operation or an economic trend of each country. A bulk Cargo was selected for the series of simulation referring the above result, that the kind of cargo has the large amount of cargo flows at present and future, and also it is relatively general cargo in sea trades. Ferrous metal and chemical/mineral fertilizers could be assumed to be exported from Russia on the regional route. On the transit route between Europe and Pacific Asia, grain, coal, coke, and food products are considered as the cargo flow.