If we assume that the national-average expenditure elasticity in foodgrains is 0.4, and that the annual growth rate of per-capita real income remains at 5%, then demand for foodgrains would increase at a rate of 2% per annum. Considering the 1.9% of the population growth rate, the total rate of increase in demand for foodgrains is expected to be about 4%. This rate will double the demand over some 18 years. If incomes rise, the elasticity will naturally fall. On the other hand, if demand for feed crops increases, deriving from rise in demand for meat, much reduction in the elasticity cannot be expected. In talking about the food problem in India, its population has generally been focused on. If the country's economy continues to grow, however, income effect will be a matter of concern greater than the increase in demand for foodgrains.
Would it then be possible to increase foodgrain production to meet demand in the process of economic growth? The diffusion of high-yield varieties has been almost completed in the advanced farming states, and much extension of cultivated area cannot be expected in India - and not merely in the northwest regions. Accordingly, farming productivity (land productivity) needs to be raised in the agriculturally backward states, in order to cater for India's demand for food. Without greater productivity, the demand-supply imbalance between states would increase, and regions' conflicting interests would be more serious, narrowing the choice of policies.
The increase in production of rice in recent years in the states along the lower reaches of the Ganges (West Bengal, Bihar, and Orissa) is a desirable tendency. The increased production has been achieved by construction of tube wells. There is doubt, however, as to whether this trend will create a granary belt in these areas as is seen in the northwest of India.
Considering this situation, if a food crisis is impending, India will be compelled to increase food production in the areas backing sufficient agricultural infrastructure, including irrigation and land consolidation. If this happens, the country will have to confront the difficulties of increasing yield in an environment which is different in quality from that of the mid 1960s, when it could resort to the infrastructures inherited from British India.
