4. The Future Population of India
India's population transition is rather slow, relative to that of China. Since both countries have high proportions in the agricultural sectors, the speed of population transition depends on the modernization in rural communities. India's agrarian land reform after independence was insufficient and the social structure in agricultural areas in the colonial period has been handed over as it was. Unless an appropriate improvement is made in this issue, it will be difficult to accelerate the transition of population of the country.
According to the low variant of the United Nation's future estimates, on the assumption of rapid population transition, show that the population growth rate will decline at an increasingly faster pace in the 21st century, and that growth will hit a ceiling in 2040 when the total population of India will be around 13.5 billion. This is 250 million (16%) less than the aforementioned medium variant estimate of 1.6 billion. On the other hand, if the population transition were to be hindered due to delay in social and economic modernization, the country's population could even reach 2 billion in the mid 21st century (by high-variant estimates).
Future populations are not fixed figures and can vary depending on social or economic modernization, government policies on education or family planning. Nonetheless, securing a base to support the increasing population should be the foremost crucial issue for the future India. If the country does not succeed in maintaining the constant decrease in the mortality rate, especially by securing water resources and promoting food production, all the estimates of future population will lose their validity and completely different scenarios will emerge.
