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3. Population Growth and Food Production

 

The huge population is the most fundamental fact of China, and the population problem has long been and will continue to be the key issue in the country's modernization process. According to the fourth population census in China, the total population in the Mainland reached 1,133.68 million in 1990. It had exceeded the 1.2 billion mark already in 1995, accounting for 21.4% of world population.

Chinese population statistics, issued by departments concerned, show that the population will tend to grow gently between 1995 and 2010, and continue to do so for quite a long time before eventually attaining zero growth. Those years will be the vital period for China in achieving its population-goal. The Government set forth the objectives of keeping the population within 1.3 billion until 2000, and within l.4 billion until 2010. This implies that during the first ten years of the 21st century, another 200 million will be added to the 1.2 billion of the 1995 figure.

Thanks to the successful implementation of planned childbirth, the birth rate in China has already declined to the replacement level. Due to the inertia of population growth, however, some 13 million have been newly added every year on average. According to United Nations projections, even at such a low birth rate level, the population will continue to grow until the 2030s when the Chinese population is likely to amount to about 1.6 billion. Also, it must be noted that the current birth rate involves substantial regional differences, and is quite unstable. In view of the uneven regional distribution and instability of the birth rates, it is very likely that the population in the future will exceed 1.7 billion, or even 1.8 billion, should the birth rate show a rebound. The demand for food in the 21st century created by the immense scale of the population and its continuous growth will bring massive pressure to bear on Chinese food production. Crop yields have been continuously increasing, yet most of the increments have been consumed by the additional population.

 

 

 

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