When the new China was founded in 1949, the national food production was 113.2 billion kilograms or 209kgs per capita. In 1978 the respective figures were already 304.8 billion kilograms or 317kgs per capita.
As a result of a series of reforms of the agricultural system based on the household-based contracting production started in 1978, national food production increased to 350 billion kilograms, 400 billion kilograms, then to 450 billion kilograms. It reached 456.4 billion kilograms in 1993, the world greatest, with the per-capita production, 387kgs, at the world average level. Further, the national food production in 1997 was as high as 492.5 billion kilograms. In other words, China is feeding 22% of the world's population with 7% of the world farmland. The target food production level in the Ninth Five Year Plan (1996 to 2000) is to achieve 490 to 500 billion kilograms in 2000. The trend of the country's food production implies continuous growth in the long term.
Looking from the perspective of the historical experiences of China's economic development, when the national economy was rapidly growing, agriculture, especially food production, often tended to increase rather slowly, while, conversely, the latter often expanded speedily when economic development was sluggish. The Chinese economy is likely to maintain quite a high growth rate over the next ten years. "The Ninth Five Year Plan and The Outline of Long Term Objectives Towards 2010" aims at a growth rate of GNP at annual averages of 8% in the ninth five-year period, and 7% in the first ten years of the 21st century. A number of observations and research results forecast that the country's actual economic growth rate in the next ten years or more will be around 9%, exceeding those target figures. This forecast value is far above the world average level. While food production has continued to grow in the 1990s due to rapid economic development, the annual average rate of increase in crop yields has slightly declined. There is concern that this might represent a long-term trend. But it does not, for the following reasons.
