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Table 4 Future Population Estimates for three Northeast Provinces

(1995-2000)

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Note: Author's estimates

Notes on Statistical Data:

a. Total Population: The 1990 population by sex and by year group was from the populations by sex of five age groups in the three provinces at the time of China's fourth population census.

b. Assumption on Birth Rate: For the 1990 birth rate, the 10% sampling results of the 4th population census, regarding the reproductive-aged female population's total fertility rate (TFR) in the three provinces ware used as base.

The birth rates were 1.51 in Liaoning, 1.31 in Jilin, and 1.71 in Heilongjian. The 2010 birth rates are determined by annual average rates of TFRs of the reproductive-aged female populations in the three provinces. Accordingly, the 2010 TRFs of the reproductive-aged female populations in the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjian, are estimated to be 1.50, 1.60 and 1.51 respectively.

c. Assumption on Mortality Rate: The indices to express mortality rates used here are average life expectancies of the population groups at the time of birth. The 2010 by-sex average life expectancies in the three provinces are estimates, based on the by-sex life expectancies in the provinces in 1981.

 

 

 

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