3. Potential Strength of Chinese Agriculture and Conditions of Farmland Exploitation and Food Production
The world's most populous nation, China's population growth, as well as supply and demand of food, have attracted considerable attention. Especially since 1996, several organizations concerned have issued pessimistic forecasts of the prospective supply-demand conditions in the country. If China falls into the position of the world's great grain-importer as forecasted, the global supply-demand food-balance will be destroyed.
1. Pessimistic Forecast of Supply-Demand Situation regarding Food in China
The forecasts by Mr. Lester Brown, Chairman of the US World Watch Research Center took the initiative in creating the pessimistic forecast trend. His research predicts that China will be importing about 200 billion to 300 billion tons of grains, which is equivalent to the world total grains currently traded, in the period between about 2020 and 2030. If this were to be the case, grain prices all over the world would soar and not only China but also the whole third world would suffer from starvation. However, Mr. Brown's forecasts are not sufficiently grounded. For example, a decrease in the planted area, which is one of the critical indices, is not expressed as any specific forecast value.
The Development Support Research Center of the Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund of Japan (OECF) also announced its forecast results in October 1995. They also expect a considerable amount of grain import by China, although their forecasts are 10% plus lower than Mr. Brown's. The Research Center's studies, however, also point out that the imports could be halved depending on China's efforts towards more domestic production.
