A Word at the Outlet
As in other twentieth-century countries, China has relied on claiming an increasing share of the available water supply to support economic development, using projects such as large dams and diversions and tubewells. That time is coming to an end, first of all in the marginal areas such as the Huang He and for the groundwater users of Hebei Province. So far, the non-sustainabilities of current patterns of water use have apparently not restricted development appreciably, however.
There are two ways of interpreting this situation. One is that China's current mode of development is leading to greater exposure, and merely postponing the catastrophe - the view that the drama of the next century will be filled with tragedy. The other is that institutions will show adequate adaptability to avoid the tragedy, but that water will have to be treated as an economic good. This could cause some sad stories for those who live on the margins - not a romance or a comedy, but not a tragedy, either.
1 At the time of writing, China had reported 3,004 killed in flooding, India 2,353 (The Japan Times, 29 August 1998： 4) and Bangladesh 407 (The Independent Internet Edition, 31 August 1998). The flooding along the Yangtze was the worst since 1954, when 33,000 died, while in the northeast the Daqing oil field, China's largest, was flooded. Bangladesh was inundated with its worst flood in 10 years.
2 The most extreme example of this view was the "Oriental despotism" of Karl August Wittfogel. More moderate views are widely accepted that an "Asiatic mode of production" based on irrigation or river control led to the perhaps premature development of a bureaucratic state that may have been a factor hindering the indigenous development of an industrial revolution.
